Opinions can differ about what makes an NCAA Tournament Cinderella team.
I tend to think that to earn the “Cinderella” moniker, you’re likely seeded in the bottom half of your region and manage to advance to at least the Sweet 16.
I’m not a believer that a Cinderella team can’t come from a Power 6 conference (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12 or SEC), and I’ll use the Big East’s DePaul Blue Demons to make my point.
DePaul went 3-29 on the year and 0-20 in conference play. But what if DePaul somehow magically got hot and won the Big East Tournament to earn an automatic bid?
Would we then exclude DePaul from being a Cinderella contender? I don’t think so.
A Cinderella team can undoubtedly come from a Power 6 conference if it’s a higher seed that pulls off back-to-back upsets to advance past the first weekend.
There have also been instances where a mid-major team received a low seed, yet it went off as an underdog in the betting market.
Thus, I believe a mid-major team can be a Cinderella team even if it’s seeded lower. The deeper the run these teams can make, the greater the validation of their Cinderella status.
While determining what teams qualify as Cinderellas is entirely subjective, I’ve identified two teams in the same region that could be fitted for glass slippers in March.
Florida Atlantic: +790 to reach Sweet 16 (FanDuel), 40/1 to win the East (Caesars)
Connecticut must be wondering what it did to deserve such a difficult bracket despite being the top overall seed in the country.
The Huskies are joined by two other Final Four teams (Florida Atlantic and San Diego State) from a year ago and three quality Power 6 teams (Auburn, Illinois, and Iowa State) that all won their conference tournaments.
Based on my criteria for Cinderella status, only Florida Atlantic and San Diego State qualify among those five teams in the East. Let’s start with FAU.
Despite being the eighth seed in the region, the Owls automatically qualify as a Cinderella team in my book because they’re a mid-major school.
FAU returns all five starters from a season ago and 90% of its player minutes. It could face UConn if it gets past Northwestern in the first round.
Guards Jalen Gaffney and Brandon Weatherspoon are the only seniors in the Owls’ lineup. However, their top three scoring leaders (Johnell Davis, Alijah Martin and Vladislav Goldin) are all juniors, so this is an ultra-experienced team.
Davis averages 18.2 points, Goldin scores 15.2 and Martin contributes 13.3 per game. Goldin’s 7-foot-1 frame will be an asset against Connecticut’s size.
If the Owls can pull off a shocker and knock off the Huskies, this bracket becomes completely wide open for a possible deep run.
San Diego State: +250 to reach Sweet 16 (BetMGM), 25/1 to win the East (Caesars)
Although San Diego State is seeded fifth, it could have to get past a fourth-seeded Auburn team and the top-seeded Huskies to reach the Elite Eight.
Again, the deeper the run a mid-major team like San Diego State can make, the greater the validation of their Cinderella status.
The Aztecs rank ninth in Ken Pomeroy’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency metric (93.8 points allowed per 100 possessions), even ahead of UConn, which ranks ninth.
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Both teams tend to play at a deliberate pace.
San Diego State ranks 266th in Pomeroy’s Adjusted Tempo metric, averaging 66 possessions per 40 minutes, while Connecticut ranks 329th (64.5 possessions per 40 minutes).
All it takes is for the Huskies to shoot poorly in one game — like they did in all three of their losses this season, especially against Seton Hall and Creighton — and they could find themselves out of the tournament.