The thing about Ilya Sorokin’s 2023-24 season is that the bar he set for himself was almost always going to be impossible to reach again.
Sorokin’s 2022-23 campaign, in which he posted a .924 save percentage over 62 games and hauled the Islanders into the playoffs, was not just worthy of the Vezina Trophy for which he finished second to Linus Ullmark in voting.
It was probably one of the best seasons by a goaltender in the modern era.
By Evolving Hockey’s measure of goals saved above expected, Sorokin had 51.36 GSAx — the second-most of any goaltender in a season since the stat has existed.
That’s not just a lot, it’s significantly more than anyone behind him.
Juuse Saros’ 2022-23 season ranks third in the same stat and clocked in at 45.49.
Igor Shesterkin’s 2021-22 Vezina Trophy-winning campaign ranks ninth at a paltry-by-comparison 37.18.
So yes, that probably wasn’t going to happen again.
But even with that caveat, as well as noting Sorokin has faced more shots this season than any goaltender in the league, his output has been below expectation.
His .908 save percentage is just fine, but nothing more.
He’s still pulled out the occasional acrobatic save, but there’s been a lot more stoppable goals let in, including during Sunday’s 5-2 loss to the Rangers, in which Jonny Brodzinski’s go-ahead tip-in goal bounced off the netminder before going in.
“I thought he was good,” Islanders coach Patrick Roy said, not about to throw the netminder under the bus. “The goals that he gave up, I don’t know if he could have done [more], they’re all big saves. Yes it would’ve been nice to come back in the dressing room 2-2 after two, but listen, we played against a team that played better than us.”
Diving deeper into the numbers, there is a noticeable drop-off for Sorokin in two areas: medium-danger shots and on the penalty kill.
Although his save percentage on high-danger looks has stayed relatively steady compared to last year, going from .852 to .843, per Natural Stat Trick, Sorokin has gone from .922 on medium-danger shots to .870.
On the penalty kill, meanwhile, his save percentage has dropped from .869 last season to .822 this season, per Natural Stat Trick.
It’s worth saying that the play in front of him has been significantly worse at four-on-five, but the difference is evident even in stats that try to account for that.
After stopping 14.58 goals more than expected while shorthanded last season, Sorokin has saved negative-5.56 goals fewer than expected in the same situation this season.
By no stretch has Sorokin’s play been problematic this season. But the difference between historically great and just fine is a large one.
The Islanders officially activated Robert Bortuzzo (high ankle sprain) off long-term injured reserve.