There was plenty of madness in the men’s NCAA Tournament last year, as for the first time in history all four No. 1 seeds failed to reach the Elite Eight.
Perhaps we should have known things would get a little wacky after 13th-seeded Furman knocked off fourth-seeded Virginia in just the second game to tip off in the Round of 64.
Six hours later, 15th-seeded Princeton emerged victorious over second-seeded Arizona. A day later, Purdue became the second No. 1 seed ever to lose to a No.16 seed when Fairleigh Dickinson won, 63-58.
The Final Four featured two mid-major teams seeded fifth (San Diego State) and ninth (Florida Atlantic) and two Power-6 schools seeded fourth (Connecticut) and fifth (Miami).
While we might have a better chance of spinning the wheel at the roulette table than trying to predict this year’s Final Four participants, I can’t deny that it’s always a fun exercise.
Below are four teams that could have their bags packed to the Final Four in Glendale, Arizona.
East Region odds
| Seed | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connecticut | +110 |
| 4 | Auburn | +450 |
| 2 | Iowa State | +450 |
| 5 | Illinois | +600 |
| 6 | BYU | +1600 |
| 5 | San Diego St. | +2000 |
Fade the Huskies in the East
I’m not sure what the selection committee was thinking when it gave the top-ranked Connecticut Huskies the most-challenging roadmap to a possible Final Four appearance.Â
Not only is UConn in a region with two teams that reached the Final Four last year, but it’ll also have to contend with three Power 6 conference tournament winners.
I know the Huskies are a great team, but with their odds at +110 there’s not much value in backing them to win the East region.
As a result, I’m strongly considering just fading the Huskies on the moneyline beginning in the second round, where they could face Florida Atlantic (FAU) or Northwestern.Â
In the third round, the Huskies could face another Final Four team in San Diego State from last year.
Should the Huskies advance even further, they could face Iowa State and Illinois, which are on the other side of the bracket.
I wouldn’t be against sprinkling some Final Four futures on FAU, San Diego State, Illinois or Iowa State.
However, if I had to pick one, I’d roll the dice with Iowa State because it’s elite defensively, ranking No. 1 in Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency metric.
A matchup between Connecticut and Iowa State would feature the No. 1 offense against the No. 1 defense.
Pick: Iowa State (+450, FanDuel)
South Region odds
| Seed | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston | +120 |
| 1 | Marquette | +600 |
| 3 | Kentucky | +600 |
| 4 | Duke | +750 |
| 7 | Florida | +1100 |
| 5 | Wisconsin | +1500 |
Golden Eagles soar in the South
The Houston Cougars might have been exposed in their 69-41 blowout loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 final.
Iowa State shot 41% (9-of-22) from behind the arc and limited Houston to just 15 field goals in the contest.
The Cyclones also had three fewer turnovers (nine) than the Cougars, meaning Houston’s blitz-style defense was largely ineffective.
If you’re going to beat Houston, you had better be able to score from the perimeter and have a guard who can handle pressure.
Marquette is a team that can do both as it ranks 38th in turnovers (9.9) and 43rd in 3-point field goals (8.9), per TeamRankings.
The Golden Eagles are among seven teams ranked in the top 25 of Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offense and defensive metrics. This is a team that could very well go all the way to a national title.
Pick: Marquette (+525, Caesars)
Midwest Region odds
| Seed | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Purdue | Odds |
| 2 | Tennessee | +120 |
| 3 | Creighton | +400 |
| 4 | Kansas | +450 |
| 5 | Gonzaga | +650 |
| 6 | South Carolina | +2800 |
Boilermakers are vulnerable in March
One thing I won’t be doing is backing the No. 1-seeded Boilermakers to reach the Final Four. Purdue has not reached a Final Four since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.Â
Moreover, the Boilermakers have lost to double-digit seeds in the past three postseasons and became the second No. 1 seed in tournament history to lose to a No. 16 seed.
Purdue had 23 fewer field goal attempts (51) than Wisconsin in the Big 10 Tournament semifinal overtime loss (76-75).
The Boilermakers won the rebounding battle, 46-32, but committed 16 turnovers to five for Wisconsin.
While stopping Zach Edey remains unlikely, you have to make him earn his points from the free throw line.
Meanwhile, Creighton has four players who average double figures and three who score 17 or more points. It also has a 7-foot-1 center in Ryan Kalkbrenner, who can try to contain Edey.
Also, Creighton is one of those seven teams ranked in the top 25 of both efficiency categories.
With the Boilermakers ripe for the picking, give me the third-seeded Bluejays to come out of the Midwest region.
Pick: Creighton (+550, BetMGM)
West Region odds
| Seed | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Carolina | +260 |
| 2 | Arizona | +275 |
| 3 | Baylor | +650 |
| 4 | Alabama | +650 |
| 5 | St. Mary’s | +1100 |
| 9 | Michigan State | +1100 |
All chalk in the West
The West Region could be on a collision path between North Carolina and Arizona in the Elite Eight.Â
What’s interesting about this matchup is that Arizona senior guard Caleb Love played for the Tar Heels during his first three years of college.
This is the matchup college basketball fans want to see, and I think we’ll get our wish. Despite losing to N.C. State in the final round of the ACC Tournament, I still think the Tar Heels are poised to make a deep run.
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In contrast, the Wildcats failed to reach its conference final and has two losses in its last three games.
I’ll take the Tar Heels here as my only No. 1 seed to reach the Final Four.
