Post Action Betting

Colorado State vs. Virginia prediction: March Madness First Four odds, picks

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Social Links for Tanner McGrath, Action Network
Published March 19, 2024, 5:00 p.m. ET
Isaiah Stevens (4) of the Colorado State Rams
Isaiah Stevens and Colorado State are favored against Virginia. Getty

The Virginia Cavaliers should not be in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. 

The ’Hoos rank 44 spots below St. John’s in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency rankings, yet the committee left the Red Storm out, giving the Big East just three entrants. 

Specifically, the Cavaliers shouldn’t be in the tournament because they can’t score. Tony Bennett’s blocker-mover offense regressed to new levels of pathetic this season, failing to reach 50 points in four of the regular season’s final five games. 

Of course, Bennett’s pack-line defense, which protects against penetration, is still among the nation’s best, but Colorado State can circumvent it.

Head coach Niko Medved is an elite game-planner and schemer who will fully stretch Bennett’s defensive script. 

Colorado State's point guards are the key to victory against Virginia.
Colorado State’s point guards are the key to victory against Virginia. Getty Images

Colorado State vs. Virginia prediction

(9 p.m. ET, truTV)

He’ll likely try to run secondary actions around the perimeter, where Virginia is vulnerable. The pack line is an inherently compact scheme, so the Cavaliers rank sub-270th nationally in 3-point rate allowed. 

And he’ll likely leverage Isaiah Stevens as much as possible. 

Stevens is among the nation’s best playmaking point guards (seven assists per game, 40 percent assist rate). He’s particularly elite at finding rim-running cutters, with Colorado State ranking 20th nationally in cutting frequency (10.7 percent of possessions) and third in cutting PPP (1.46). 

Reece Beekman #2 of the Virginia Cavaliers.
Reece Beekman #2 of the Virginia Cavaliers. Getty Images

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The Cavaliers’ pack line is a good cut-denial defense, but they’re weak at defending cutters on a per-possession basis (1.29 cutting PPP allowed, 322nd nationally).

Elite point guards can dribble-penetrate and unpack the ’Hoos, and I expect Stevens to do that Tuesday. 

And it wouldn’t be surprising to see UVA fail to reach 40 points. 

THE PLAY: Colorado State -2.5 (-110, BetMGM)