The First Four matchups in Dayton are interesting for two reasons.
First, the First Four squads often make deep runs in the NCAA Tournament, like UCLA in 2021.Â
Second, these are often disgusting matchups that devolve into true rock fights.
Wagner vs Howard on Tuesday fits squarely in the latter category.
Here’s an against-the-spread bet for this 16 vs. 16 matchup.
Wagner vs. Howard odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wagner | +3.5 (-115) | +140 | o128 (-112) |
| Howard | -3.5 (-105) | -166 | u128 (-108) |
Wagner vs. Howard prediction
(6:40 p.m. ET, truTV)
This is a wild matchup for a few reasons.
These teams both run a similar defensive scheme, specifically a matchup zone with heavy press. It’s a staple defensive strategy of the MEAC and NEC conferences.
At first, I thought Howard had a huge advantage.
I thought Howard would shoot directly over Wagner. The Bison’s Princeton motion offense creates an immeasurable amount of open jumpers, as they led the MEAC in 3-point Rate and Open 3 Rate by a mile, ultimately canning 38% of their 22 3s per game.
But, somewhat surprisingly, Wagner ranks in the top 40 nationally in the Open 3 Rate allowed, closing out on everything. So, it’ll be harder for Howard to create and make those ever-important triples.
Additionally, Wagner is the much better ball-handling team, which is critical in a matchup between two press-heavy defenses. The Seahawks also foul much less than the Bison, which is critical as Howard lives at the line, ranking 11th nationally in free-throw rate.
The Seahawks can’t score to save their lives, ranking among the worst college basketball offenses. Predictably, their metrics against zone and press defenses are poor.
However, they also enjoy a considerable size advantage on the wing, with Melvin Council Jr. standing two inches over his likely defensive opponent, Marcus Dockery, and Tahron Allen standing an inch taller than Bryce Harris.
Wagner scores almost entirely with wing creation, as those two combine for 35 points per game. Their size could make a world of difference in Dayton.
And, arguably of more importance, the Seahawks run the floor at a surprisingly high rate for such a slow-paced team (361st nationally in adjusted tempo). They scored the fourth-most fast-break points during NEC play and rank above the 70th percentile of D-I teams in transition PPP.
That could be the difference-maker against a Howard defense that ranks sub-300th nationally in transition PPP allowed and sub-350th in fast-break points per game allowed. The Bison allowed a million transition opportunities and struggled to defend itself in the open court.Â
Ultimately, I think this could devolve into a lower-scoring rock fight, especially between Wagner’s offensive struggles and decent defensive matchup.
Betting on March Madness 2025?
- Read our How to Bet on March Madness guide
- Get bonus bets and promos from the best March Madness betting sites
- Download The Post’s blank and complete NCAA brackets
- Check out the latest March Madness winner odds
So, I’m somewhat happy to grab over one possession in a points-at-a-premium battle with a Seahawks team with some intriguing advantages, namely wing scoring, transition scoring and excellent 3-point defense.
My biggest worry is that Seth Towns – the ageless wonder who first played collegiate ball at Harvard in 2017 – will create endlessly in the high post by slashing and cutting through Wagner’s aggressive zone.
But I’m willing to take my chances, given that Towns struggled to score efficiently on the interior this year, shooting 39% from 2-point range.
Wagner vs. Howard pick
Wagner +3.5 (-112, DraftKings)Â | Play to +3