Trump leads Biden in 2 key battleground states that had razor-thin margins in 2020: polls
Former President Donald Trump is leading President Biden in Georgia and North Carolina, two battleground states that were won by narrow margins four years ago.
The presumptive Republican nominee leads Biden 51% to 47% among registered voters in Georgia, and 51% to 48% among registered voters in North Carolina, according to two Marist Polls released Wednesday — with Trump, 77, enjoying higher support among black voters and young voters in both states than he received in 2020.
Last time around, Biden won Georgia by 0.23%, while Trump won North Carolina by 1.34%.
The Marist polls are the latest in a series of surveys that show Biden, 81, lagging consistently behind Trump in other battleground states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin.
According to the surveys, 20% of self-identified black voters in North Carolina would vote for Trump if the election were held today, while 24% of black voters in Georgia would pull the lever for the Republican.
In 2020, exit polls showed Trump receiving 7% of the black vote in North Carolina and 11% of the demographic in Georgia.
Biden also leads Trump by just 50% to 49% among registered voters under 30 in North Carolina, while the 45th president leads the same demographic in Georgia 51% to 46%.
In 2020, Biden won young Georgia voters by 13 percentage points, while Trump received just 40% support among young North Carolina voters four years ago.
Among independents, Trump leads Biden 52% to 46% in North Carolina, while trailing Biden 49% to 48% in Georgia.
Despite Trump’s lead in both states, a most voters have unfavorable views of both major party contenders.
In North Carolina, 55% of registered voters have an unfavorable opinion of Biden and 50% have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.
In Georgia, 53% of registered voters view the president unfavorably, while 49% say the same of Trump.
“North Carolina has been a battleground state for several presidential election cycles and remains so in 2024,” says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “Both Biden and Trump have secured their base. The tale of the tape will be who commands independent voters and voters who dislike both presidential candidates.”
Of Georgia, Miringoff noted the Peach State “has been ground zero for Trump’s legal problems dating back to the 2020 election.
“Although the overwhelming majority of Democrats and a plurality of independents think Trump broke the law, only a handful of Republicans think so,” Miringoff added. “Despite all the attention focused on the state’s vote count in 2020, more than six in ten Georgia voters across party lines remain confident in the integrity of state and local elections.”
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also has double-digit support in both states, despite not yet being on the ballot in either.
In North Carolina, RFK Jr. gets 11% of the vote when included with Biden and Trump, and in Georgia, he gets 14%.
In both states, Trump still leads a three-way fight with Biden and the environmental lawyer and vaccine skeptic.
The Marist Polls of North Carolina and Georgia were conducted between March 11-March 14 via live interviewers, by text, or online. The North Carolina poll has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.6 percentage points and the Georgia poll has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.7 percentage points.
