No. 4 Kansas and No. 13 Samford square off Thursday night in an NCAA Tournament first round matchup in Salt Lake City.
Kansas has only been as high as a No. 4 seed three times since 2005. Always a threat to take down a tournament under legendary coach Bill Self, this KU team disappointed down the stretch, losing four of its last five games.
However, the Jayhawks were missing two of their stars, Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr., in their Big 12 Tournament loss to Cincinnati. Dickinson should be good to go for the opening round, but McCullar has been ruled out and won’t be available for the rest of the tournament.
Let’s take a closer look at this intriguing matchup and find a betting edge.
Samford vs. Kansas odds
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| Samford +7.5 (-110) | Over 153.5 (-115) | Samford +240 |
| Kansas -7.5 (-110) | Under 153.5 (-105) | Kansas -300 |
Kansas hasn’t been the same since the calendar flipped to 2024.
The Jayhawks were 12-1 with wins against Connecticut, Tennessee and Kentucky in the first month of the season, but were a middling 10-9 after the ball dropped.
I’m betting on talent in this one as we look at hitting the over on the game total. Oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring affair, as the 154.5 total is the sixth-highest of the opening round.
The Jayhawks rank top 60 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency rating. They rely heavily on scoring two-pointers, and Self’s team did so at an elite 54.8% shooting clip (30th in the nation).
How will they fare against Samford’s defense? The Bulldogs rank well outside of the top 100 in defensive eFG%, 2PT%, and 3PT% while sending their opponents to the foul line at a very high rate.
The Bulldogs’ offense could find much more success than their defense against Kansas.
Samford attempts 3-pointers at a very high rate, and they own the nation’s eighth-best shooting percentage from downtown.
That makes their 20th-ranked 2P% look pedestrian. This team can shoot with the best of them.
Samford’s 3-point matchup fits like a glove against Kansas. The Jayhawks yield 3-point attempts at a top-60 rate and are 168th in defensive 3PT%.
All of that sounds pretty good for attacking this over, but it gets even better because both teams like to play fast.
The Bulldogs love to push the pace, owning KenPom’s 14th adjusted tempo and Kansas ranks 92nd in that department.
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This matchup should have an up-and-down pace of play, with Samford getting plenty of quality 3-point looks on one side.
On the other end, the Jayhawks should overpower a Bulldogs’ defense that hasn’t played against anyone in the KenPom top 100 since Nov. 10.
The total opened at 149.5 but was bet up to as high as 154.5. BetMGM and PointsBet still have it a point lower.
Let’s take the over in a fun late-night hammer Thursday night.
Pick: Over 153.5 points (-115, BetMGM)