After a crazy up-and-down year, Tom Izzo’s Spartans are back in the NCAA Tournament for the 26th consecutive season.
I’m unsure if they belong and it’s an underwhelming season nonetheless – Michigan State was a preseason top-10 team – but the Spartans are here.
They’ll battle Mississippi State in the first round, which looked miserable in the regular season’s final weeks before upsetting top-seeded Tennessee in the SEC Tournament and putting a scare into eventual tournament champion Auburn.
While the Bulldogs enter this tournament playing some great ball, I’d be surprised if they get past Sparty – I don’t love the matchup.
Mississippi State vs. Michigan State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
| Mississippi State | -1 (-112) | -120 | o130.5 (-110) |
| Michigan State | +1 (-108) | +100 | u130.5 (-110) |
(Via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Mississippi State vs. Michigan State Prediction
(12:15 p.m. ET, CBS)
I really don’t think the Bulldogs can overcome the Spartans.
The biggest issue is turnovers. Mississippi State ranks 290th nationally and last in the SEC in turnover rate, committing a whopping 13 per game despite playing relatively slowly.
That is a monster problem against Sparty, which forces turnovers at the third-highest rate in the Big Ten and uses live-ball steals to fuel a lethal transition offense — Michigan State ranks in the top 20 nationally in transition PPP (1.18).
The Bulldogs run a cut-and-post-based offense revolving around dominant big man Tolu Smith.
But for all their faults, the Spartans are a relatively effective interior defense, ranking 10th nationally in paint points per game allowed (25) and 50th in 2-point defense (47%).
They do that mainly by denying rim-running cutters, ranking top-30 nationally in cutting points per game allowed (five).
So, the Bulldogs will likely attempt to run their interior-cutting offense, which will likely result in turnovers and inefficient shot attempts.
On the other end of the court, Chris Jans is typically an excellent ball-screen coverage coach.
However, the Bulldogs’ ball-screen coverage metrics have been shaky at best, especially on the perimeter, where they’re allowing the 60th-most pick-and-roll ball-handler points per game of any D-I team (11).
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Even worse, Smith has struggled mightily in ball-screen coverage, meaning Mississippi State is vulnerable to ball screens on the perimeter and interior.
That is a massive problem against Michigan State, as the Spartans leverage the deadly backcourt duo of AJ Hoggard and Tyson Walker to run endless pick-and-rolls — Hoggard and Walker run a combined 10 per game.
Mississippi State will run drop coverage, which baits ball handlers into mid-range shots.
However, Walker is more comfortable in that area than any high-major guard, so the Spartans rank 10th nationally in mid-range frequency.
Here’s Walker cooking Minnesota in three sets – a high pick-and-roll, a left-wing mid-range, and directly off the bounce:
Ultimately, I expect Mississippi State to look uncomfortable on offense, fueling the Spartans’ fast-break offense. I also expect Sparty to look very comfortable in their half-court offensive sets.
I’m banking on a Sparty win in the 2024 NCAA Tournament’s inaugural game.
Mississippi State vs. Michigan State Pick
Michigan State ML (-120) | Play to ML (-130)