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march madness 2024

Underdogs winning at historic rate through Round of 64 in March Madness

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Published March 23, 2024, 2:10 p.m. ET
John Poulakidas #4 of the Yale Bulldogs is showered by teammates in the locker room after a 78-76 victory against the Auburn Tigers in the first round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.
John Poulakidas of the Yale Bulldogs is showered by teammates in the locker room after a 78-76 victory against the Auburn Tigers in the first round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. Getty Images

Underdogs cleaned up during the NCAA Tournament’s Round of 64. 

During March Madness’ first two full days, underdogs won 12 games outright, which is the most since 2001 and tied for the second-most since 1985, according to Action Network’s Evan Abrams. 

A bettor who placed $100 on every underdog on Thursday and Friday would be up $842, per BetMGM Sportsbook’s John Ewing. 

Several razor-thin spread underdogs have won outright, but a few long shots have overcome massive odds to move on in the tournament. 

On Thursday, the biggest underdog to win outright yet, No. 14 seed Oakland (+700), took down John Calipari and No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats, who had been a popular national championship pick before the tourney. 

That was several hours after No. 11 Duquesne (+375) eliminated No. 3 Illinois. 

Fousseyni Drame #34 of the Duquesne Dukes reacts after defeating the Brigham Young Cougars during the second half in the first round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.
Fousseyni Drame #34 of the Duquesne Dukes reacts after defeating the Brigham Young Cougars during the second half in the first round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. Getty Images

The next day, No. 13 Yale beat No. 4 Auburn as a +625 underdog. 

The hot stretch for underdogs extends back to the First Four when two ‘dogs — No. 16 seeds Grambling State and Wagner — won outright. 

Through 36 games, in the First Four and Round of 64 combined, underdogs have won 14 outright, which is tied for the most entering Round of 32 in the First Four era (since 2011), per Abrams. 

Underdogs weren’t as successful against the spread on Thursday and Friday, though. 

Favorites went 18-14 ATS during the Round of 64. 

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And that includes two collapses by favored Nevada and Arizona, which both had clear shots at covering – and in the Wolf Pack’s case, winning outright — before scoring droughts let their opponents cover the points. 

With so many Cinderellas still alive, there are a number of big underdogs to keep an eye on in the Round of 32, including Dayton (+310) against Arizona and Duquesne (+400) against Illinois on Saturday, and Utah State (+450) against Purdue, Northwestern (+800) against UConn, and Texas A&M (+400) against Houston on Sunday.Â