The 2024 MLB season is technically underway with the Dodgers and Padres having clashed in a two-game series overseas last week, but the rest of the teams will toss out their first pitches Thursday.
As anyone could have expected, there are a few teams with profuse talent depth and playoff experience overshadowing the betting markets.
Perhaps with the exception of the AL Central, you could make a pretty sound case for at least three teams to be legitimate playoff contenders in every MLB division.
Following their historically sized offseason spending spree, the Dodgers lead as +320 favorites to win the World Series. This price translates to 23.8 percent implied probability for Los Angeles to win it all.
The Astros lead the American League market at +360 after making the postseason for seven consecutive seasons, during which they clinched two World Series and four pennants.
Houston is priced at +700 to win another World Series title.
There’s little value with investing in the Dodgers or Braves.
I see the Astros regressing and even though the Yankees added Juan Soto, they remain a top-heavy lineup that’s being overvalued in a division that will keep them plenty busy.
Instead, let’s take a look at an AL team that is being overlooked in both the pennant and World Series markets.
Minnesota Twins to win AL pennant (+1200, Caesars)
Minnesota won its first postseason series since 2002 last year. The pieces seem to be falling into place, as the Twins made the playoffs in four of the six prior seasons but to no avail.
They have a sneakily elite pitching staff, which is hot off leading the majors in strikeouts by a margin of 32.
Yes, Sonny Gray has departed the fold, but Pablo Lopez could make himself a strong case for the AL Cy Young. Lopez limited opposing hitters to a .269 xwOBA and held a 3.00 xERA. That was before posting a 2-0 postseason record that featured a 0.71 ERA.
Both Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are in exciting turning points of their careers.
The bullpen allowed 2.95 hits per game, which ranked in the top five. Jhoan Duran has been stellar in his first two major league seasons, posting a 2.15 ERA to emerge as one of the game’s most reliant closers at age 25.
The Twins have a ceiling as high as any at the plate, finishing 2023 at No. 6 in wRC+. They finished fifth in the AL in runs per game at 4.76 and that was with Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis all nursing injuries at varying points.Â
If the three of these guys can sustain their health throughout 2024, then I expect the Twins to be true contenders for the pennant.
Minnesota Twins to win World Series (+3000, bet365)
While we’re at it, we might as well take the Twins to win the World Series; they are my favorite long shot on the market with odds as generous as +3000 at bet365.
They have the easiest path into the playoffs versus any of the other 29 clubs considering their advantage over the poor competition in the AL Central. That should inflate their numbers down the stretch, but there is an undervalued stability in the pitching staff and enough positional depth in the minors to be fresh in the postseason.
Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting
- Read about the Best Baseball Betting Sites
- Learn all about How to Bet on Baseball
- Get the latest World Series Odds
Plus, Minnesota runs as much of a data-driven operation as any with Rocco Baldelli deploying platoon lineups that have found success mirroring the opposing arms.
Now that the Twins have ended their playoff funk, the bar is raised to stringing together a real run for the title.
The Orioles and Mariners also make for encouraging long-shot picks, but they are both still green when it comes to October baseball.
If you’re planning on taking the Rangers to go back-to-back, you might want to take a temperature check come summer time when and if several key arms return from injury.