Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin, tied in two other swing states: poll
President Biden has narrowly pulled ahead of former President Donald Trump in the key state of Wisconsin and is even with his predecessor in Pennsylvania and Michigan, according to a new 2024 election poll.
Trump still leads Biden 47% to 43% across seven battleground states, per the March survey conducted by Bloomberg News/Morning Consult — but the Democrat is gaining ground against his presumptive Republican opponent for the first time in five months.
Biden, 81, is backed by 46% of registered voters in Wisconsin while 45% support Trump, 77, in a head-to-head battle.
Registered voters in Pennsylvania and Michigan broke evenly for Biden and Trump, with each getting 45% support in both states.
In February, Biden trailed Trump by four percentage points (46%-42%) in Wisconsin, six percentage points (49%-43%) in Pennsylvania, and two percentage (46%-44%) points in Michigan, according to the same survey.
Trump still holds sizable leads over Biden head-to-head in Arizona (48%-43%), Georgia (49%-42%) and North Carolina (49%-43%) — as well as a narrow edge over the incumbent in Nevada (46%-44%).
The 45th president leads Biden in six of the seven battleground states when third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West are added to the ballot test. In Michigan, Trump and Biden are tied at 40% each among registered voters, with Kennedy getting 9%, West getting 3% and Stein 2%
A separate Morning Consult nationwide poll released Tuesday gave Biden a one-point lead over Trump among registered voters (44%-43%).
Trump has been ahead of Biden in almost all election surveys since September 2023, according to the RealClearPolitics polling aggregator.
The survey took place over the week following Biden’s State of the Union address, which supporters of the president seized on in an attempt to throw off concerns about his age.
The favorability ratings for both Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris remain underwater, with 55% having an unfavorable opinion of the president and 53% having an unfavorable opinion of the vice president.
More than half of registered voters in the battleground states (53%) also have an unfavorable view of Trump.
Asked whether they were voting for their preferred candidate or against their opponent, fewer than three in 10 Trump supporters said they were casting a ballot against Biden.
But nearly half of Biden voters said they were voting to block Trump’s path to the White House for a second nonconsecutive term.
In Wisconsin, six in 10 registered voters who will support Biden said they did so to oppose Trump.
The poll also found that a majority of swing state voters who have a favorable opinion of former GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley said they will vote for Trump over Biden on Election Day 2024.
Around six in 10 voters surveyed also said that vice presidential picks will carry more weight in their choice of candidate, given the respective ages of Trump and Biden.
The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll surveyed 807 registered voters in Pennsylvania, 796 in Arizona, 788 in Georgia, 699 in North Carolina, 698 in Michigan, 697 in Wisconsin and 447 in Nevada.
Respondents filled out online surveys March 8-12 in Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, March 8-14 in Arizona and Wisconsin, and March 8-15 in Nevada.
The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania, four percentage points in Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin and five percentage points in Nevada.
