Even as a No. 1 seed, North Carolina seems a tad undervalued heading into its Sweet 16 matchup Thursday night with Alabama (9:39 p.m. ET, CBS).
The Tar Heels are the worst among the NCAA Tournament’s four top seeds, but they’re not as far behind the others as the public believes.
Let’s take a look at this fun matchup that oddsmakers project will be the highest-scoring of the eight Sweet 16 games over the next two days.
Alabama vs. North Carolina odds
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama +4.5 (-110) | Over 173.5 (-110) | Alabama +158 |
| North Carolina -4.5 (-110) | Under 173.5 (-110) | North Carolina -192 |
Alabama vs. North Carolina analysis
RJ Davis is a madman with middle-of-the-floor dribble and shot creation that no one in college basketball duplicates.
Armando Bacot is still among the nation’s best post-up players and rebounders.
Elliot Cadeau has improved all year.
Cormac Ryan and Harrison Ingram are vital cogs on the wing.
The Heels play great interior defense, ranking top-25 nationally in two-point shooting allowed and paint points per game allowed, while rebounding everything.
North Carolina might struggle with Alabama’s elite off-ball secondary and isolation actions, but you can only hope to contain the Tide, who averaged 90.8 points per game in the regular season.
The Heels have a shot at containment, given that they have the nation’s best transition denial defense and the fourth-best rim-and-3 defense by PPP allowed.
Both will be monstrous against Nate Oats’ offense, which emphasizes up-tempo, rim-and-3 basketball.
Conversely, North Carolina should be able to score on a high percentage of its possessions.
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The Tide run a drop-coverage defense with limited rim protection and rebounding.
The first issue is vulnerable to Davis’ on-ball dribble- and middle-of-the-floor creation, and the latter two are vulnerable to Bacot’s post-creation and offensive rebounding.
Not to mention Alabama fouls like crazy, while North Carolina draws fouls at a top-80 rate nationally.
Alabama vs. North Carolina pick
The Heels should score at will, and their defense is sturdy enough to generate enough tough stops to cover the two-possession spread, earning UNC another trip to the Elite Eight.
Pick: North Carolina -4.5 (-110, FanDuel)