The NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16 tips off Thursday with four matchups in the East and West Regions.
The Illinois vs. Iowa State matchup (10:09 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV) is the last of the four and could be the most exciting game of the night.
In the East Region semifinals, the third-seeded Illini take on the second-seeded Cyclones in what oddsmakers essentially consider a coinflip game.
Illinois vs. Iowa State odds
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| Illinois +1.5 (-110) | Over 146 (-110) | Illinois +100 |
| Iowa State -1.5 (-110) | Under 146 (-110) | Iowa State -120 |
Illinois vs. Iowa State analysis
Iowa State runs a ball-screen blitz defense with no middle elements near the rim and paint.
The scheme sends two defenders to the ball-handler and rotates aggressively and early over the paint and rim.
There are a few ways to exploit the nation’s best defense (according to KenPom’s efficiency metrics) and the nation’s best offense (according to KenPom’s efficiency metrics), and rip through those vulnerabilities.
First, among the best ways to beat the blitz is by avoiding ball-screen creation altogether, leaning into isolation creation.
Brad Underwood has leaned heavily into five-out isolation creation, relying mainly on hero ball behind Terrance Shannon Jr., Marcus Domask and Coleman Hawkins.
The Illini will roll the ball out and beat you one-on-one.
Second, the inherently aggressive nature of the blitz and no-middle means the Cyclones foul often and leave the boards open to second-chance opportunities.
The Illini are among the nation’s best at crashing the glass, ranking among the top 15 nationally in offensive rebounding rate and the top five in second-chance points per game.
And it’s nearly impossible not to foul Shannon and Domask on their aggressive lane drives, so Illinois ranks in the top 70 nationally in free throw rate.Â
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Illinois vs. Iowa State pick
Illinois’ defense is a huge problem, and I’m unsure if the Illini’s porous ball-screen coverage defense can contain Tamin Lipsey or the Cyclones’ rim-running cutters.
However, this matchup ultimately depends on whether you trust Illinois’ offense or Iowa State’s defense more.
I really like Illinois’ matchup from a schematic perspective, and I don’t trust Iowa State’s offense, which ranks last among the 16 remaining teams in efficiency over the past 10 games.
Give me Illinois and the points in a game with the Elite Eight on the line.
Pick:Â Illinois +1.5 (-110, Caesars)