The Major League Baseball season is finally here.
We got a brief appetizer with the Seoul Series, if you were willing to wake up in the wee hours of the morning, but we get the full experience of Opening Day on Thursday.
Unfortunately, two games have been postponed due to expected inclement weather, but the other 26 teams will be in action, assuming the weather holds in Baltimore.
PrizePicks has a full board of projections.
Here are some of my favorite targets for Opening Day.
Framber Valdez fewer than 5.5 pitcher strikeouts
Valdez will make his third straight Opening Day start for the Astros.
In last season’s opener, he cruised through five scoreless innings against the White Sox, throwing 85 pitches and recording four strikeouts against what turned out to be one of MLB’s weakest offenses.
In his team’s 2022 opener, Valdez tossed 6 2/3 scoreless innings against the Angels, throwing 84 pitches and recording six strikeouts. The Angels finished that season with the highest strikeout rate in the league.
This year, he gets an assignment against the Yankees, who have added Juan Soto to a lineup that already included Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.
In his career, Valdez has been roughly around league average with his strikeout rate and was only slightly above average last season at 24.8%. The Astros’ lefty struck out 32.5% of left-handed batters last season, but just 23.4% of right-handers.
He only projects to face three lefties in this matchup, and two of them are named Juan Soto (career 19.2% strikeout rate vs. lefties) and Anthony Rizzo (career 15.8% strikeout rate vs. lefties).
Assuming he stays in the same 85-pitch range of his last two Opening Day starts, Valdez should record fewer than his 5.5 strikeouts projection.
Nestor Cortes fewer than 4.5 pitcher strikeouts
Cortes draws an unexpected Opening Day start for the Yankees after an unfortunate injury to staff ace Gerrit Cole.
“Nasty Nestor” was not so nasty last season, as he took a step backward after two lights-out seasons in the Bronx. He saw his ERA balloon to 4.97 after consecutive seasons under a 3.00 ERA. Underlying metrics supported the decline, as he posted a 4.49 FIP and 4.35 SIERA.
Cortes’ strikeout rate also declined for a third consecutive season to 25.2%, from 26.5% in 2023 and 27.5% in 2022. The southpaw also featured a wide split in his strikeout rate, fanning 31.1% of lefties compared to just 24.1% of righties.
The matchup for Cortes against Houston is among the most difficult for left-handed pitchers in all of baseball. The Astros struck out at the lowest rate in MLB against lefties last season, just 18.2% of the time.
Houston projects to roll out just two lefties in their Opening Day lineup — Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, who are two of the best left vs. left hitters in the world.
Cortes topped out at just 62 pitches this spring. He threw 80 pitches in his first start of 2023, and I think that is about where we see him land against the Astros — that is, if things are going well.
I think Cortes records fewer than his 4.5 strikeouts projection.
Mookie Betts more than 7.5 hitter score
The Dodgers have one of the best matchups of any team on Opening Day as they face Miles Mikolas and the Cardinals.
Betts already is off to a great start with multiple hits in each game of the Seoul Series. He hits atop what is widely considered to be the best lineup in baseball, which gives him multiple paths to racking up fantasy points.
Last season, Bets posted the fourth-best wOBA (.407) in MLB, and he finished fourth in runs scored (126) and sixth in RBI (107). He popped 39 home runs and added 14 stolen bases, giving him elite production across the board.
Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting
- Read about the Best Baseball Betting Sites
- Learn all about How to Bet on Baseball
- Get the latest World Series Odds
Mikolas posted just a 15.9% strikeout rate last season, as he struggled to a 4.78 ERA. There will be plenty of opportunities for Betts to put the ball in play.
Given the matchup against a low-strikeout pitcher and his position at the top of the Dodgers’ potent lineup, Betts should be able to top his 7.5 hitter score projection.