There are plenty of storylines to cover as we head into the NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16.
One of them is how dominant Connecticut, the tournament’s overall No. 1 seed, has looked in the first two rounds.
Another is how San Diego State, last year’s March Madness runner-up to UConn, has battled back to fight another weekend.
And what do you know? Both of these squads are squaring off in the Sweet 16 on Thursday night at the TD Garden in Boston.
Maybe we should call it an “unofficial” home game for Uconn.
Let’s take a closer look at the rematch of the 2023 NCAA Tournament title game and find a betting edge.
San Diego State vs. UConn odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| SDSU | +12 (-115) | +550 | o136.5 (-112) |
| UConn | -12 (-105) | -800 | u136.5 (-108) |
San Diego State vs. UConn prediction
Thursday’s game will feature a pair of programs that pride themselves on defense.
Both teams rank in the top 10 of KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric.
There aren’t many clear-cut advantages for San Diego State in this matchup on paper. It seems like everything the Aztecs do well, the Huskies do just a tick better.
That being said, UConn’s offense has been methodically great, and that’s the one large gap between these two teams.
The Huskies are a deserved heavy favorite in this game, but there are a few good reasons to think that the Aztecs can stick around to cover the spread.
SDSU owns KenPom’s second-best adjusted defense that Uconn has faced to date.
The Huskies have played six games against top-20 adjusted defensive teams and covered a hypothetical 12-point spread just twice (including an additional outright loss to Kansas).
They also haven’t played many teams that draw fouls and get to the free throw line.
In fact, the Aztecs rank 66th in the country in free throw rate, while UConn — incredibly — has only played four teams this season that rank in the top 140 of that department. I’m not even sure how that’s possible.
The Aztecs are battle-tested. They might not be the same powerhouse as they were last season, but they own outright wins over tournament teams Gonzaga, Utah State, Nevada, Saint Mary’s, New Mexico and Yale.
This will be UConn’s biggest test by far after rolling through Stetson and an ultra-thin Northwestern squad in the second round; the Wildcats nearly back-door covered.
SDSU star forward Jaedon LeDee has been superb in March, scoring at least 21 points in six of his last seven games with two 30-bombs sprinkled in that stretch.
In his team’s Round of 32 rout of Yale last week, he posted his highest offensive rating of the season.
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San Diego State vs. UConn pick
The analytics support SDSU in this game.
KenPom calls it an eight-point game, BartTorvik is at nine and Haslametrics has it close to 10 points.
After the spread opened at 9.5 points, it has moved to as high as 12.5 on BetRivers and 12 at a few other sportsbooks.
Let’s take the points with San Diego State and start the long weekend off right.
Pick: San Diego State +12 (-118, BetRivers)