Another year, another battle atop the American League between the Yankees and the Astros.
We were saying the same thing one year ago until New York fell flat on its face, finishing fourth in the AL East and missing the playoffs for the first time in seven years.
Houston proved itself foolproof again, extending its postseason streak to seven years but coming up short against Texas in the ALCS while defending its World Series title.
We’ll take things from the top again when the Yankees and Astros play their opening days on Thursday afternoon in Houston to launch a four-game series.
Yankees vs. Astros odds
| Runline | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| Yankees +1.5 (-154) | Over 8.5 (-122) | Yankees +128 |
| Astros -1.5 (+128) | Under 8.5 (+100) | Astros -152 |
Yankees vs. Astros analysis
Nestor Cortes will begin as the Yankees’ No. 1, with Gerrit Cole out for the near future with elbow inflammation.
Cortes harnessed his fair share of injuries last year, making one appearance in the final four months of the season.
It’s tough to sincerely evaluate the southpaw last year (4.97 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 1.25 WHIP) given he was relegated to only 12 starts because of a rotator cuff strain of all things.
He had a mucky spring, too, posting a 7.71 ERA in 14 innings.
Framber Valdez gets the nod for Houston.
Despite holding his own as the latest anchor in an Astros rotation that never seems to dwindle, he allowed some questionable batted-ball numbers last year.
Valdez ranked in MLB’s bottom 6% in both exit velocity and hard-hit percentage, a career-worst season for him in those statistics.
We saw him meet his demise against the hard-hitting Rangers in the ALCS, where he went 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA.
The Yankees were certainly no comparison in plate consistency, but for what it’s worth, the offense will be an upgrade with Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo and a healthy Giancarlo Stanton to support Aaron Judge’s league-leading predictive batted-ball metrics.
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Yankees vs. Astros pick
I expect the beat to go on for Yordan Alvarez and company in that department after a third straight year of pumping out top-five contact numbers.
Cortes holds a career ERA of 10.57 in Minute Maid Park.
Look for both teams to swing ambitiously from the get-go.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-115, BetRivers)