In the final game to determine this weekend’s Elite Eighh matchups, third-seeded Creighton takes on second-seeded Tennessee in a Midwest Region matchup Friday night (10:09 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV) in Detroit.
It’s one of two games on my betting card for the night.
Creighton vs. Tennessee odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Creighton | +2.5 (-108) | +120 | o144,5 (-105) |
| Tennessee | -2.5 (-112) | -144 | u144.5 (-115) |
Creighton vs. Tennessee analysis
Creighton runs a drop-coverage defense that overplays ball-handlers on the perimeter and shooters on the wing, funneling everything toward the rim.
Because they have a dominant rim protector in Ryan Kalkbrenner, the Bluejays own one of the nation’s best drop-coverage defenses.
But you beat the drop with on-ball middle-of-the-floor creation, and Dalton Knecht is among the best at mid-range creation.
He ranks in the 90th percentile of D-I players in mid-range efficiency, and he murdered drop-coverage defenses this season, dropping 57 combined points in two games against South Carolina, 25 against Alabama and 39 against Florida.
Knecht is crucial to Tennessee’s offense beating Creighton’s defense.
But the Volunteers’ defense should hold up fine against the Bluejays’ offense.
Creighton runs a motion-based inside-out offense that relies heavily on Kalkbrenner’s post buckets and secondary 3-pointers from Baylor Scheierman, Trey Alexander and Steven Ashworth.
But Rick Barnes’ defense is overwhelming at the rim, excellent in the gaps and rock-solid at closing out on shooters.
In other words, the Vols can stop everything the Jays want to do.
For example, Creighton ranks second nationally in rim-and-3 points per possession, but Tennessee ranks fourth in rim-and-3 points per possession allowed.
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Creighton vs. Tennessee pick
The Bluejays are physically soft. They let N’faly Dante and Jermaine Couisnard keep Oregon in the game without help during the second round.
That won’t play against Tennessee, which is almost as physical as Houston.
Knecht will score, the defense will show up and the Volunteers will convincingly advance to the Elite Eight.
Pick: Tennessee -2.5 (-109, BetRivers)