You don’t beat Houston with on-ball screens and post feeds. You just don’t.
And that’s problematic for No. 4 Duke when it takes on the South Region’s top-seeded team, Houston, Friday night (9:39 p.m. ET, CBS) in the Sweet 16.
It’s one of two NCAA Tournament games on my betting card for Friday.
Duke vs. Houston odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | +3.5 (+100) | +155 | o134.5 (-110) |
| Houston | -3.5 (-120) | -190 | u134.5 (-110) |
Duke vs. Houston prediction
The Cougars’ aggressive blitz defense sends two to the ball on every screen while rotating aggressively toward the paint in rim denial.
The nation’s best, most physical and talented defense ranks in the top five nationally in ball-screen PPP (0.59) and post-up PPP (0.62) allowed.Â
Meanwhile, Duke’s offense is built around Kyle Filipowski in the high-post screen-and-roll game.
He’s an excellent pick-and-pop and hard-roll player, but he’s most effective in the short-roll game, consistently hitting Duke’s perimeter shooters when the defense rotates toward him.
This was a big reason why Duke shot 40% from beyond the arc in ACC play this season.
Still, you don’t beat Houston with on-ball screens and post feeds.
If Duke could roll the ball into the high post, the Devils might create enough perimeter opportunities to win – as they did in a 50% 3-point shooting performance against James Madison.
But they’ll have a difficult time getting the ball into the high post, especially because Duke is a finesse team that lacks physicality.
The Devils’ inability to handle physical play is why they lost twice to North Carolina this season and also in last year’s NCAA Tournament to Tennessee.
We almost saw a similar fate in their first-round game against Vermont, which has a sketchy ball-screen coverage defense.
Still, the Catamounts boast two physical defenders in Ileri Ayo-Faleye and Shamir Bogues, and those two held Duke to only 64 points on 0.92 PPP, with Filipowski scoring only three points on a single shot attempt.Â
Imagine what Houston will do.
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Duke vs. Houston pick
It’s uncertain where the Cougars will create offense in this matchup, but I trust their defense to overwhelm and control Duke for 40 minutes in a convincing Sweet 16 win.
Pick: Houston -3.5 (-120, BetMGM)