Matt Painter and Purdue have made five Sweet 16s in the past seven years.
Painter has guided the Boilermakers to seven Sweet 16s since he took over in 2006.Â
However, in this round, Painter’s squad is 1-5 straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS).Â
Mark Few has been similarly prosperous in Spokane.
This will be the Bulldogs’ seventh consecutive Sweet 16 and 11th overall since 2000. But Few’s Zags are 5-5 SU and 5-4-1 ATS in this round.Â
I don’t know if Gonzaga has the firepower to overtake Zach Edey and company, but I think the Bulldogs can keep it close.
Gonzaga vs. Purdue Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga | +5.5 (-114) | +180 | o154.5 (-115) |
| Purdue | -5.5 (-106) | -220 | u154.5 (-105) |
Gonzaga vs. Purdue Prediction
(7:39 p.m. ET, TBS)
Aside from a WCC Tournament loss to Saint Mary’s – where the Bulldogs shot 2-for-11 (18%) from 3 – the Zags have been on a tear.
They’re averaging around 1.3 PPP over the past two months. The Ryan Nembhard-Graham Ike ball screens are impossible to stop, and Ike is among the best post-up creators in the nation. Ben Gregg has turned into a potential All-American player at the four with shooting, spacing, and ball movement. The Bulldogs are still dominant in transition and rim-run like crazy.
They’re arguably the best offense left in the tournament.
Purdue boasts an excellent interior defense, but the Boilermakers are vulnerable in ball-screen coverage – their 0.78 PPP allowed ranks around the nation average.
Lance Jones and Fletcher Loyer are vulnerable against pick-and-roll initiators, and Edey can be ripped apart if forced to defend in space and out of position.
I can’t imagine Nolan Hickman, Nembard Ike and Gregg won’t exploit that weakness.
In this year’s head-to-head matchup with Purdue, Gonzaga tried to run 35 ball-screen sets in a 10-point loss in the Maui Invitational.
But the Bulldogs’ offensive numbers were skewed by an awful shooting performance, as they canned only six of 32 3-point attempts (19%).Â
Gonzaga could’ve kept the game close or won outright with more typical shooting splits.
And the Zags have improved since that performance, certainly on offense with ball-screen development and Gregg’s breakout, but the Bulldogs are even better defensively.
I’ve been wildly impressed with Gonzaga’s defense over the second half of the season.
Behind Ike, the Bulldogs have turned into the nation’s 10th-best two-point defense (44%) and seventh-best post-up defense (.66 PPP allowed).
Additionally, Anton Watson is a one-man wrecking ball as the point-of-attack ball-screen defender, blowing everything up.
The Bulldogs allow only 28 paint points per game on 32% shooting.
This is all crucial against Purdue, which runs its entire offense through Edey at the rim, posting up at the nation’s highest rate while using the National Player of the Year’s gravity to open up perimeter shooters.
There’s one major caveat: free throws.
The Bulldogs have zero depth, running a short seven-man rotation while ranking 342nd nationally in bench minutes. If they get into any foul trouble trying to hack Edey, the Bulldogs are in trouble.
However, they’ve been great at not fouling, using a more passive drop-coverage scheme to defend interior scorers one-on-one while forcing on-ball mid-range creation.
Betting on March Madness 2025?
- Read our How to Bet on March Madness guide
- Get bonus bets and promos from the best March Madness betting sites
- Download The Post’s blank and complete NCAA brackets
- Check out the latest March Madness winner odds
Gonzaga ranks 20th nationally in free-throw rate allowed.
It might be impossible not to foul Edey, and if the Bulldogs get cooked by fouls, I’ll have to tip my cap and move on.
But the Zags are red-hot and have the two-way schematic advantages to compete with Purdue for 40 minutes.
I’m banking that the Bulldogs to keep it within five.
Gonzaga vs. Purdue pick
Gonzaga +5.5 (-114, FanDuel) | Play to +5