In 1974, the North Carolina State men’s basketball team won its first national title by defeating Marquette, 76-64.
Fifty years later, the two schools meet again in the NCAA Tournament — this time with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line.
No other team in the tournament has had a more improbable run to the Sweet 16 than NC State.
The Wolfpack went just 4-10 in its last 14 games entering the postseason and needed to win the ACC Tournament to earn their entry into the Big Dance.
Beating quality teams like Duke and North Carolina en route to a conference tournament title undoubtedly gave the 11th-seeded Wolfpack the belief that they deserved to be a part of the madness in March.
As for second-seeded Marquette, we shouldn’t be too surprised it reached the tournament’s second week.
The Golden Eagles began the season ranked fifth in the preseason AP Top 25 poll and deserve to be 6.5-point favorites.
However, if you’re like me and already have futures invested in Marquette, you probably don’t want to double down on the Golden Eagles against a very live N.C. State team.
Instead, I prefer to target a player prop that aligns well with what I expect to be a very competitive game.
North Carolina State vs. Marquette odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| N.C. State | +6.5 (-104) | +240 | o151.5 (-105) |
| Marquette | -6.5 (-118) | -300 | u151.5 (-115) |
North Carolina State analysis
Since expanding to 15 schools, the ACC has perennially received between six and nine tournament entries, but for the third straight year it received just five bids.Â
However, perhaps the criticism of the conference was unwarranted, as four of the five schools survived to advance to the Sweet 16.
N.C. State is a battle-tested team, having played in the ACC. One thing that’s helped the Wolfpack in recent games has been their ability to control the glass.
During its current seven-game winning streak that dates to the start of the ACC Tournament, N.C. State has only lost the rebounding battle in two games.
Having an edge in rebounding allows the Wolfpack to generate more extra scoring chances than their opponents.
According to TeamRankings, they have a +3.3 margin in extra-scoring chances, which ranks 42nd in the country.
Marquette doesn’t rebound the ball well, ranking 292nd (32.7) in this category, whereas N.C. State is 148th (35.2).
When a matchup involves two teams separated by roughly two possessions on the point spread, those second-chance opportunities could be the difference in cashing a winning ticket.
Marquette analysis
The biggest question in this contest is whether N.C. State decides to play at the same pace as Marquette. Both teams are averaging 71 possessions per game this season.
While 71 possessions only equate to 150th in the country, Marquette’s transition offense makes the Golden Eagles a very formidable team.
According to Hoop-Math, Marquette creates 27.2% of its shots in transition, the 40th-best mark in D-I.
N.C. State struggles with its transition defense, allowing opponents a 56.7% Effective Field Goal Percentage, which ranks 284th in the country.
Marquette also puts pressure on its opponents with its perimeter game. It ranks 33rd with nine 3-pointers per game.
It’s worth noting that N.C. State ranks 218th in 3-point field goals with an average of 7.1.
There’s plenty of balance in how Marquette attacks its opponents. RealGM has the Eagles 10th in the country in paint points (39.1).
Much of that success is down to Marquette’s All-American point guard Tyler Kolek, who returned to the team in time for the NCAA Tournament after missing six games — including the entire Big East Tournament — with an oblique injury.
The Golden Eagles will go as far as Kolek can take them in this tournament, so it makes sense to target him as our best bet in Friday’s matchup.
North Carolina State vs. Marquette pick
After watching Kolek closely this season, I’m convinced he can be a terrific NBA pro. He averages 15.3 points, shoots 39.7% from the perimeter and leads the country with 7.9 assists per game.
At the next level, not every player can be a superstar, as someone has to be responsible for running the offense.
Kolek has proven he can do just that. He posted back-to-back 11-assist performances in his two tournament games thus far.
Marquette coach Shaka Smart is well aware of Kolek’s importance to his team. Following his return from injury, Kolek played at least 38 minutes in both tournament games.
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He then played the entire 40 minutes in the second round of Marquette’s 81-77 win over Colorado.
If Smart is willing to go the distance with Kolek in these high-leverage games, there’s a ton of value in playing the over in Kolek’s points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop of 29.5.
He has exceeded this number in both tournament games (35 vs. Western Kentucky, 37 vs. Colorado), and he’s also been impressive with his ability to rebound consistently from his point guard position.
He’s averaging 4.8 rebounds this season and logged at least five boards in both tournament rounds.
Kolek is an stat-stuffer, and since I’m projecting this to be a very competitive game, I expect him to log heavy minutes with a chance to exceed his PRA prop of 29.5 at FanDuel.
Pick: Tyler Kolek over 29.5 points + rebounds + assists (-113, FanDuel)