Saturday’s East Regional final gives us a heavyweight bout between two offensive juggernauts.
While the NCAA Tournament game between top-seeded Connecticut and third-seeded Illinois (6:09 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV) should be super, I’m staying off the spread and focusing on another betting angle.
Let’s take a look at this Elite 8 matchup.
Illinois vs. UConn odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | +8.5 (-110) | +300 | o154.5 (-110) |
| UConn | -8.5 (-110) | -385 | u154.5 (-110) |
Illinois vs. UConn analysis
Going back to the Big Ten tournament, this is Illinois’ fourth straight game against a slow, defensive-minded opponent.
The Huskies were a slightly below-average team in terms of pace a year ago, but they’ve morphed into snails this season (319th).
But despite the pace similarities, the Huskies share very little in common with Illinois’ previous opponents like Duquesne and Iowa State.
What we do know on the Illinois side is that Brad Underwood’s team will look to spur its transition game any way it can.
The Fighting Illini are the second-fastest team remaining in the field behind Alabama.
But the thing about UConn – a team comfortable in a halfcourt game – is that it has the weaponry to be coaxed into a faster game.
We saw this play out against St. John’s in the Big East Tournament (185 total points), and against Xavier, the Big East’s fastest team.
The Huskies scored 186 points in two games against the Musketeers.
Dan Hurley’s elite defense, which ranks fourth in the nation in shooting efficiency, won’t be protected by a glacial pace on Saturday.
If the Illini want to run, and they will, UConn will simply run with them and beat them at their own game.
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While Illinois has become an analytical darling on the offensive end, it’s actually UConn that has the top-ranked offense, according to KenPom and Bart Torvik’s rating systems.
The Huskies dismantled a formidable San Diego State defense, foiling Brian Dutcher’s game plan.
That kind of performance, against a tactician like Dutcher, is bad news for an Illinois defense that is barely inside the top 100 nationally.
Illinois vs. UConn pick
The Illini are one of the most profitable “over” teams in the country, cashing at a 70.3% clip. They go over the closing total by an average of 7.8 points per game.
Pick: Over 154.5 (-110, FanDuel)