Post Action Betting

March Madness predictions: Early Women’s Final Four picks, odds

By
Social Links for Tanner McGrath, Action Network
Published April 2, 2024, 7:54 p.m. ET
Caitlin Clark celebrates Iowa's March Madness win over LSU on Monday.
Caitlin Clark celebrates Iowa's March Madness win over LSU on Monday. Getty Images

Let’s dive into my favorite early bets for the Women’s Final Four. 

NC State vs. South Carolina Prediction

  • Odds: South Carolina -11.5, Over/Under 139.5
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

NC State’s offense is begging for regression. 

The women Wolfpack have scored over 76 points in the past three Tournament games, but they needed a whopping 19-for-49 (39 percent) 3-point shooting performance to get there. 

The interior offense hasn’t been that good, given they’re shooting only 44% from 2-point range while averaging 25 paint points per game during the four-game stretch.

Without a supernova 3-point shooting performance, the Pack are likely not here. 

I’m banking on shooting regression for NC State against a South Carolina team that has held opponents to 27% from 3-point range on the year. 

Head coach Dawn Staley of the South Carolina Gamecocks celebrates with fans after beating the Oregon State Beavers 70-58 in the Elite 8 round of the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament.
South Carolina head coach Dawn Staley celebrates with fans after beating Oregon State 70-58 in the Elite 8. Getty Images

NC State will have to lean on its defense to hang around with the ever-dominant Lady Gamecocks. 

And the Wolfpack’s defense matches OK here, specifically on the boards. 

South Carolina relies heavily on second-chance opportunities. Against Oregon State, 28 of the Gamecocks’ 70 points came from offensive rebounds.

They scored 21 second-chance points against North Carolina and 18 against Presbyterian. 

Nevertheless, NC State ranks in the top 15 nationally in defensive rebounding rate and second-chance points per game allowed. The Wolfpack allowed Chattanooga, Tennessee and Stanford to generate eight second-chance points combined. 

So, combine NC State’s looming shooting regression with its rock-solid defensive rebounding, and I expect a rock fight in this Final Four matchup. 

Pick: Under 139.5

UConn vs. Iowa Prediction

  • Odds: Iowa -2.5, Over/Under 163
  • Time: 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Caitlin Clark has played UConn twice in her storied career, and she lost both games. 

But she also shot under 40% from the field both games. 

For someone that shoots 58% from 2 and 38% from 3, it’s hard to imagine that type of poor shooting performance happening for a third consecutive game. 

With typical shooting splits, the Hawkeyes could’ve — or should’ve — won those previous matchups. 

Betting on College Basketball?

Meanwhile, the 2024 UConn Huskies are a tad different from those past teams. 

For starters, these Huskies have almost zero depth, running a six-woman lineup. They might be tired this late into the season, and are highly vulnerable to foul trouble. 

Additionally, these Huskies haven’t played a game within five points all year, so I worry about their crunch-time ability. 

Can Paige Bueckers really outplay Clark in a late, one-possession game with a trip to the National Championship on the line? 

I’m unsure, but I’m willing to bet against that. 

Pick: Iowa -2.5