It’s been a tale of two starts for Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
The Dodgers’ prized offseason addition lasted just one inning (five runs) in his first start of the season, but bounced back and fanned five over five scoreless innings in his second start.
So, what can we expect on Saturday night at Wrigley Field against the Cubs?
Let’s take a closer look at the matchup.
Dodgers vs. Cubs odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runs Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | -184 | -1.5 (-111) | o8 (+100) |
| Cubs | +154 | +1.5 (-108) | u8 (-122) |
Dodgers vs. Cubs analysis
Yamamoto, who features a four-seam fastball that he throws in the upper 90s as well as a splitter and curveball that each generated numerous swings and misses in his last outing, is likely closer to the pitcher who carved up the Cardinals than the one who struggled against the Padres.
At least that’s what the Dodgers are hoping after shelling out $325 million to the former NPB star.
Although he might not throw another shutout on Saturday, he just has to keep his team in the game, and he’s well-positioned for it after his dominant start against the Cardinals, which had to be a boost to his confidence after a rough spring and MLB debut start.
Maybe now the three-time Pacific League MVP can just relax, play ball and spin another quality start in Chicago.
From there, a stacked Dodgers offense that is rolling during the early part of the season can take control.
Mookie Betts has put together five multi-hit performances and he’s had at least one hit in nine of the Dodgers’ first 10 games.
Shohei Ohtani hit his first homer on Wednesday and added another on Friday in L.A.’s 9-7 loss to the Cubs. Ohtani has hits in 10 of his first 11 games.
And Freddie Freeman, who was on base four times (three walks) in Friday’s loss, already has posted a trio of three-hit games.
That all adds up to a Dodgers’ offense that’s averaging 6.4 runs per game and has scored no fewer than five in every game it has played this season.
Facing that offense is a tough task for any pitcher, especially a young one.
Jordan Wicks, who debuted late last season, will start for the Cubs. He showing promise last season, going 4-1 with a 4.41 ERA and 24 strikeouts over 34 2/3 innings.
However, he also gave up 12 runs over 12 innings in his final three starts.
There seemed to be a carry-over effect into this season. In his first start of 2024, he gave up five runs (two earned) in four innings against the Rangers.
So, while showing promise, Wicks has also proven susceptible to giving up crooked numbers.
In that start against the Rangers, he also issued three walks – something he likely won’t be able to get away with against the Dodgers.
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Dodgers vs. Cubs pick
I’m backing the Dodgers to win, and to win big. I typically bet the moneyline in baseball, but have no problem betting the Dodgers -1.5 as four of their seven wins this season have come by two or more runs.
If you prefer a larger sample size, the Dodgers won 221 games over the last two seasons, 189 (86%) would have covered -1.5 runs.