I’ll take a new picture next year. I haven’t enjoyed this subpar run as much as that smug kid suggests.
N.C. State (+9.5) over Purdue
You don’t bet with your heart. That’s a top-five rule.
But you also don’t bet against a team that’s playing like it’s being guided by divine forces, as if Jim Valvano is pulling the strings.
The Boilermakers should advance. The Boilermakers probably will advance.
They have the best player in the country. They have the top 3-point shooters in the country.
But they don’t follow the UConn blueprint.
Purdue’s past seven games against power conference opponents have been decided by single-digits.
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And N.C. State’s defense has been incredible during its nine-game win streak, holding Duke (twice), North Carolina and Marquette well below their respective scoring averages.
While Zach Edey won’t be stopped, the Wolfpack have the size inside to make him work.
And should Edey try to slow DJ Burns Jr., N.C. State’s crafty big man could send the All-American to the bench with foul trouble.
UConn (-11.5) over Alabama
We are living in a casino and UConn is the house. The odds are stacked in its favor.
Keep riding the Huskies until they fail to cover an NCAA Tournament game under Dan Hurley.
UConn has now won 10 straight tournament games by double-digits, most recently humiliating Illinois — which entered with the nation’s second-most efficient offense — in the Elite Eight. If UConn is to fall, it will come at a crawl, like each of its three losses (Kansas, Seton Hall, Creighton). Alabama — ninth in adjusted tempo — can’t change its stripes.
And a sprint against the nation’s most-efficient offense will not benefit the Tide, who have allowed more than 90 points per game over the past two months.
This season: 28-30
2011-23 record: 349-308-12