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Purdue-UConn pick
After countless regular season games and an entertaining March Madness tournament, the 2023-24 men’s college basketball season ends tonight when the UConn Huskies play the Purdue Boilermakers in Glendale, Arizona.
BetMGM has the over/under for this game set at 144.5 points, and I’m leaning with the under. All of the attention goes to these team’s offenses, but their exemplary defenses should lead the way tonight.
In terms of simple points per game allowed, UConn gave up 63.5 points this season while Purdue surrendered 68.8. If both of those numbers hold, then this game will obviously finish under. That level of defense mostly held up throughout the tournament, as the Huskies only gave up 60+ points once in their Final Four win over an offensive-minded Alabama squad, and the Boilermakers allowed an average of 60.2 points in their five tournament games.
When you dive into the KenPom metrics, UConn is fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency and Purdue is 12th overall.
Neither of these teams like to push the pace, either, as the Huskies rank 306th in possessions per game and the Boilermakers are also in the bottom half of that category.
The two dominant centers in this game should also limit scoring, starting with UConn’s Donovan Clingan who is blocking 3.6 shots per game this tournament. Zach Edey should limit the Huskies’ second-chance opportunities with his great rebounding ability and he’s a pretty good shot-blocker as well.
Expect to see some great rim defense and some three-point misses inside cavernous State Farm Stadium and take the under with the BetMGM NC bonus code NYPNEWS.
Pick: UNDER 144.5 points
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