I feel like I’m going nuts.
How are the Purdue Boilermakers, with two-time National Player of the Year Zach Edey, catching 6.5 points against any other college basketball team?
Obviously, UConn is the nation’s best team and among the best teams in the sport’s history.
But Purdue is the nation’s second-best team! And nobody outside the betting markets thinks the Huskies should be laying more than two possessions in the national championship game.
KenPom projects UConn as a three-point favorite. BartTorvik projects the Huskies as 2.8-point favorites. Haslametrics projects them as 2.3-point favorites. The Action Network’s PRO projections make them a 3.5-point favorite. ShotQualityBets model is the most bullish on UConn, projecting the Huskies as 4.2-point favorites.
UConn is historically good, but Purdue is outstanding, too!
Donovan Clingan is arguably the nation’s best post-up defender (-.29 PPP allowed, 23rd nationally), but Edey has been an unstoppable post-up paint force for two seasons. Clingan might not be ready for his constant posting and re-posting — the Boilermakers run 18 post-up sets per game, and the Huskies haven’t defended more than 14 in any game this season.
This year’s Purdue team is better than last year’s squad because these Boilermakers are comfortable in ball-screen sets. Braden Smith has become a potent initiator and finisher in the pick-and-roll.
Specifically, Smith has been excellent at pulling up in the midrange from high ball-screen sets, which will be crucial in beating UConn’s dominant drop-coverage defense.
The Huskies switch everything and bring pressure on the perimeter, denying 3-point shots while funneling ball handlers toward Clingan, who sags toward the rim. The scheme baits opposing guards into midrange creation, and UConn ranks below the national average in defending those midrange shots (0.79 PPP allowed, 196th nationally).
The Purdue guards are comfortable pulling up in the midrange (0.83 PPP, 66th nationally), where Smith leads the charge with 34 made shots on 92 attempts this year.
I admit it’ll be tough — perhaps impossible — to stop UConn’s offense, especially for Purdue, which struggles to defend secondary motion actions because of Edey’s limited mobility. The Huskies’ pattern motion offense is built upon those secondary scoring actions.
But Purdue can win this game with its offense.
The Boilermakers will relentlessly post up with Edey, and I’m unsure if anybody is ever ready for that challenge, including Clingan.
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If Clingan handles the post-up sets flawlessly, then Smith can attack the midrange in high pick-and-rolls to score over the top of the Clingan drop.
If Clingan can’t handle Edey, he might get into foul trouble, which would bring in Samson Johnson. UConn will then start hard-hedging Smith’s ball-screen offense, which should lead to numbers advantages on the perimeter and open 3-point attempts for Purdue.
It’s impossible to stop UConn, but Purdue should be able to score enough to hang around for 40 minutes. The Boilermakers are an excellent basketball team with the nation’s best player and enough firepower to compete with anybody, and handing them seven points in any college basketball game is ludicrous.
Recommendation: Purdue +6.5 (-105, FanDuel)