Connecticut has trampled teams throughout the season and has ramped it up to a historic level during March Madness.
The Huskies have beaten opponents in tournament season by an average of 21.6 points (eight games), and that number increases to 24 if you throw out their five-point victory over St. John’s in the Big East Tournament.
But now they face Purdue on Monday night in the national championship, and the Boilermakers have been playing at an elite level too, which should give us some excitement in the final minutes.
Let’s take a look at a national championship prop that reflects a much more competitive game.
Purdue vs. Connecticut odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Purdue | +7.5 (-115) | +250 | o145.5 (-110) |
| UConn | -7.5 (-105) | -300 | u145.5 (-110) |
Purdue vs. Connecticut game prop
According to the Action Network’s Evan Abrams, the Huskies became the first team in the seeding era (1979-) to win 10 NCAA Tournament games in a row, both straight-up and against the spread.
Their win and cover against Alabama in Saturday’s Final Four extended that streak to 11.
Want another dominance data point? They became the first Division I team in three and a half years to go on a 30-0 run in a single game – and it came in the Elite Eight against a red-hot Illinois team no less.
But what’s lost in the shuffle of UConn’s march back to the national title game is Purdue’s elite level of play.
The Boilermakers’ adjusted efficiency margin is +31.31, according to KenPom. For perspective, that’s noticeably higher than UConn’s last season (+29.86).
Scrolling through the KenPom database, Purdue’s AdjEM is higher than 13 of the last 27 national champions.
In a normal year, all the buzz would be about Purdue’s chance to go down as one of the sport’s all-time greats. Instead, Matt Painter’s team and his two-time AP Player of the Year, Zach Edey, are being dismissed.
That seems like a bit of an overreaction to me.
According to reports, more than 70% of all moneyline tickets were on UConn.
But before plopping cash down on the Huskies, keep in mind that Purdue has been historically good against the spread (ATS) when facing ranked opponents.
The Boilermaker’s 8-1-1 mark (88.9%) when facing Associated Press Top 25 teams is the best ATS winning percentage for any team that faced at least 10 ranked opponents in the past 15 years.
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So instead of choosing between two statistical monsters, I’m going to play this one down the middle. I think UConn will find a way to win once more, but it’ll be tighter than the public anticipates.
If you select UConn’s winning margin to fall between one and five points on Monday night, it pays out close to 7:2. That seems overly generous given how well Purdue has played against top competition all season long.