The Pelicans continue their West Coast road trip Thursday night when they take on the Kings in Sacramento in a nationally televised game on TNT (10 p.m. ET).
It’s a crucial game in New Orleans’ quest to remain the sixth seed in the NBA‘s Western Conference. Going into Friday, the Pelicans are a half game ahead of the Suns and two ahead of the Kings.
New Orleans will once again be without Brandon Ingram, while Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter are injured for the Kings.
Keegan Murray is also questionable to play, so there’s a chance Sacramento will be without three of their top six players.
After losing to the Pelicans in each of their previous four games this season, the Kings are aiming to get one back.
They’ll also be looking to gain momentum heading into the playoffs after losing three of their last for games.
Pelicans vs. Kings odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pelicans | +1.5 (-120) | -105 | o215.5 (-110) |
| Kings | -1.5 (+100) | -115 | u215.5 (-110) |
Pelicans vs. Kings prediction
I think the Pelicans are undervalued tonight and I would take them to cover the spread.
Sacramento is 0-4 against New Orleans this season, with two losses by 30-plus points and only one within single digits.
While Ingram played in all four of those games, that doesn’t explain the discrepancies. Trey Murphy III (14.4 PPG) also didn’t suit up in two of those Pelicans wins and he’s playing great ball right now, averaging 19.0 points per game in April.
New Orleans just hasn’t had much trouble getting easy points against the Kings.
The Pelicans shot 54% or better in three of their four wins; they shot 47% from the floor in their only “down” game.
That is an eye-opening statistic because it shows how New Orleans was able to generate easy buckets at will and control the pace of the game.
This is where Sacramento’s defensive limitations show up. Domantas Sabonis has never been considered an imposing interior defender and the overall numbers peg the Kings as a below-average defensive team, as they rank 17th in points allowed per game and 19th in defensive rating.
You can get away with that when Monk is coming off the bench as a scoring flame-thrower, but with him out (along with Huerter and potentially Murray) the margin of error is slim to none.
Conversely, the Pelicans are fifth in defensive rating and eighth in offensive rating.
Action Network’s NBA against the spread standings tell a similar story. New Orleans is 21-17-2 against the spread on the road, while Sacramento is only 16-22 ATS at Golden 1 Center this season.
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Pelicans vs. Kings pick
The Pelicans have already been a difficult matchup for the Kings and its hard to see things getting easier with some of Sacramento’s key players sidelined.
Trust the previous game results and the season-long metrics and take New Orleans to cover the spread on the road Thursday night.
Pick: Pelicans +1.5 (-120, BetMGM)