When the Brewers lost Brandon Woodruff to a shoulder injury last fall and then traded Corbin Burnes to the Orioles for prospects in February, the way their teams had been built under Craig Counsell were forced to change.
And when Counsell left to manage the Cubs, Pat Murphy inherited a club that was in full transition.
No longer would it rely on stud-laden pitching at the top of the rotation and a bullpen that had won five of the last six Trevor Hoffman awards.
Instead, Brewers GM Matt Arnold fortified a lineup of hitters by signing Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sanchez in free agency and adding infielders Joey Ortiz and Oliver Dunn through trades.
He also crossed his fingers on first- and second-year players like Brice Turang, Sal Frelick, Blake Perkins and MLB’s No. 2 prospect, Jackson Chourio, making the leap.
Oh, and a bounce-back year from Christian Yelich and an ascension to superstar status for William Contreras.
Two weeks into the season, the plan appears to be well ahead of expected pace, and the NL Central-leading Brewers look like a team that won’t be selling at the trade deadline, like many had anticipated.
They currently are +350 to win the NL Central after sitting in the +1000 range in much of the offseason.
And there’s little value left on their odds to make the playoffs (+130).
Everywhere you look around this team, prices have increased exponentially.
Chourio is now the second-best shot to win NL Rookie of the Year (+400), and Freddy Peralta, who was at +3300 in February, now has the third-shortest odds to win the NL Cy Young at +800.
Just two weeks in, most of the preseason sale prices on the Brewers are long gone.
Where the market has been slow to respond, at least by some sportsbooks, is the NL MVP.
DraftKings still lists Yelich at 60/1 — tied for the 23rd-shortest odds. (FanDuel has lowered his odds to +4200)
Top NL MVP odds
| Player | Odds | Player | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mookie Betts | +400 | Matt Olson | +1600 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | +600 | Oneil Cruz | +2200 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | +900 | Corbin Carroll | +2500 |
| Bryce Harper | +900 | Austin Riley | +2500 |
| Shohei Ohtani | +950 | Trea Turner | +2500 |
| Freddie Freeman | +1100 | Manny Machado | +2800 |
At this early juncture, I’m not sure there’s a handful of players I’d take over Yelich, whose swing this season resembles the one that got him an MVP in 2018 and would have likely gotten him another in 2019 if not for a September injury that shortened his season.
Check out some of his advanced stats through the first two weeks, all career-highs for Yelich (MVP numbers in parentheses):
- 16.7 percent barrel rate (12.9)
- 43.3 sweet spot percentage (36.7)
- .340 xBA (.318)
- .671 xSLG (.571)
- .481 wOBA (.422)
- 17.8 strikeout rate (20.7)
One of the biggest criticisms Yelich faced in the years following his back-to-back MVP-worthy seasons in 2018 and 2019, was the disappearance of his launch angle. As he got older, was he going to be a singles hitter to finish out his career?
The numbers certainly looked as if that was the case. His launch angle went from 11.3 in 2019 to an average of 5.5 over the next four seasons.
This year, in a small sample, of course, it’s at a career-high 11.9, which has resulted in five home runs among his 12 hits in 38 at-bats, and an OPS of 1.146.
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Yelich does face an uphill battle against much younger players like reigning MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. (+600), Corbin Carroll (+2500) and Elly De La Cruz (+3000) because of their large number of stolen bases.
However, the Brewers slugger is just a year removed from 28 thefts, and he now plays for a manager who has shown a tendency this season to run wild on the bases.
While it’s a long season, Yelich looks like an MVP candidate, and if the Brewers can surprise as a team and their 32-year-old outfielder can stay healthy, he is as good of an MVP bet as any player in the National League.
Maybe better at 60/1.