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Padres vs. Dodgers prediction: MLB odds, picks, best bets for Friday

Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets a second crack at the San Diego Padres on Friday night after they derailed his much-anticipated MLB debut in Seoul three weeks ago. 

The Padres touched him up for five runs on four hits and a walk, forcing him to throw 43 pitches in the only inning he worked. 

He gets a pass on that first start, given the overseas travel and the fact it was his MLB debut. 

Yamamoto is the focus on my favorite MLB bet Friday.

Padres vs. Dodgers odds

TeamRuns LineMoneylineTotal
Padres+1.5 (-120)+165o9 (+100)
Dodgers-1.5 (+100-200u9 (-120)
Odds via BetMGM

Padres vs. Dodgers prediction

(10:10 p.m. ET)

Since his debut start on March 21, Yamamoto has looked much more like the pitcher the Dodgers expected when they gave him a massive contract to come over from Japan. 

The Dodgers righty has posted consecutive scoreless starts, lasting five innings in each of them.

He racked up five strikeouts against the Cardinals in his second start and eight strikeouts against the Cubs last weekend. 

Yamamoto’s total body of work in MLB so far is impressive considering how poorly his first start went.

Fernando Tatis Jr. will get his first taste of the new-look Dodgers.
Fernando Tatis Jr. and the Padres are off to a 7-8 start. Getty Images

His strikeout rate is sitting at 31.9%, with an underlying 13.1% swinging strike rate and 31.9% CSW rate. 

His signature curveball has looked like a true out-pitch for him. He’s deployed it 29.1% of the time this season, generating an impressive 47.6% whiffs and 36.8% put-away rate. 

The splitter (23% usage) and cutter (7% usage) have both generated a whiff rate exceeding 33%. 


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Friday night’s matchup against San Diego is not ideal, as the Padres have posted the eighth-lowest strikeout rate (19.7%) so far in the young season.

However, 4.5 strikeouts is a low line for a pitcher of Yamamoto’s caliber to clear. 

Pick: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Dodgers) over 4.5 strikeouts (-112, FanDuel