Fading the Dodgers is a scary proposition, though there will be some points throughout the season where that might become necessary.
However, Saturday is not that day. I’m not only betting the Dodgers to win, but taking them at more favorable odds on the run line.
And that’s because of a remarkable run the Dodgers have been on over the past two years.
Let’s get into that and more in our Padres vs. Dodgers betting preview for Saturday.
Padres vs. Dodgers odds
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | +1.5 (-115) | +164 | o9.5 (+100) |
| Dodgers | -1.5 (-104) | -196 | u9.5 (-122) |
Padres vs. Dodgers prediction
I’m not typically a fan of betting the run line, but the Dodgers are the centerpiece of one of my favorite run-line stats.
Going into the series opener against the Padres, seven of the Dodgers’ 10 wins have come by two or more runs. Going back further, 192 of the Dodgers’ 224 wins (86%) over the past two seasons have been by multiple runs.
The Dodgers’ offense, which scored five or more runs in 11 of its first 15 games, doesn’t need much analysis.
Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman all have top-five odds to win NL MVP for a reason. And with them, Los Angeles can rack up runs on anyone.
But while betting their run line on Saturday can be justified because of their hitting, their pitching is part of the equation as well.
Gavin Stone, a 25-year-old right-hander, is set to start and is looking to bounce back from a troubling start against the Cubs last weekend.
In that outing, Chicago tagged Stone for five runs on six hits over three innings. He did strike out five, but he also issued a trio of walks.
Stone’s 9.00 ERA through two starts (eight innings) is obviously disappointing, but there are some things to like when looking a bit deeper.
An xERA of 3.69 suggests the pitching hasn’t been as bad as the results. Stone also ranks in the 77th percentile in hard-hit percentage, the 85th percentile in chase rate and the 88th percentile in whiff rate.
Those are certainly some encouraging signs that indicate Stone’s luck should start to improve.
Obviously, he’s not expected to turn into an ace overnight, but with the Dodgers’ offense behind him, he doesn’t need to throw seven scoreless innings every five days. He simply needs to keep his team in the game.
Meanwhile, the Padres will send Matt Waldron to the mound.
The knuckleballer (yes, there are some left) has a 3.95 xERA and a 3.86 ERA on the season, so he’s pretty much performed to his expected metrics.
He gave up one (unearned) run over 5 1/3 innings in his previous outing, and although there’s nothing in his profile that necessarily makes me want to fade him, the Dodgers’ lineup is ridiculous.
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Padres vs. Dodgers pick
Stone should start to turn things around, Los Angeles has the most talented roster in the league and history shows the Dodgers typically win by multiple runs.