No one knows Corbin Burnes better than the Milwaukee Brewers, who watched their homegrown talent turn into a Cy Young winner in 2021.
Unfortunately for the Brewers, who face their former teammate on Sunday in Baltimore, no one knows better than Burnes what Brewers management did to him during his arbitration hearing before the start of his final season in Milwaukee.
He lost his case after the team fought him over just a few hundred thousand dollars. He received $10.01 million rather than the $10.75 million he had requested.
For Burnes, who attended his own hearing and heard all of the unflattering things that are often said in such meetings, it stung.
And it likely led to the blockbuster trade that landed him with the Orioles in the offseason.
“There’s no denying that the relationship is definitely hurt from what [transpired] over the last couple weeks,” Burnes told reporters after the arbiter announced the decision in February 2023. “There’s really no way of getting around that.”
How will that event, now more than a year in the rearview mirror, impact Sunday’s game against Milwaukee?
Big deal? Small deal? No deal?
Let’s take a closer look.
Brewers vs. Orioles odds
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | +1.5 (-122) | +154 | o8 (-110) |
| Orioles | -1.5 (+102) | -185 | u8 (-110) |
Brewers vs. Orioles prediction
There’s no doubt Burnes will carry those feelings into his start on Sunday against the red-hot Brewers, who at 10-3 lead the NL Central, averaging 9.7 runs over their last six games.
For Burnes, this goes well beyond your typical “revenge” game.
We witnessed one of those in the series opener on Friday when Joey Ortiz, who was acquired by the Brewers in the Burnes trade, knocked around his old club by going 3-for-5 with a pair of RBI in an 11-1 Milwaukee victory.
Then on Saturday, the other key player in the Burnes deal, left-hander DL Hall, took the mound, and although he struggled in his three-plus innings, his teammates picked him up in an 11-5 win.
Burnes is left trying to salvage the series for Baltimore on Sunday. He’s opposed by Colin Rea, a classic outs-getter who doesn’t strike out many batters and walks even fewer.
In two starts this season, Rea is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over 11 innings. More than half of his pitches are sinkers and cutters and he’ll mix in a four-seam fastball about 20% of the time.
In style, he’s the antithesis of Burnes, who after three sparkling starts is the leading AL Cy Young candidate across most sportsbooks, with odds ranging from +450 (FanDuel, BetMGM) to +650 (ESPN Bet).
In 18 2/3 innings this season, Burnes has allowed just 12 hits and four runs with 20 strikeouts to two walks.
He relies on five pitches, throwing a nasty cutter more than 50% of the time with a curveball and slider combining for another 40% of his repertoire.
According to Statcast, he’s in the top 90% in almost every meaningful advanced pitching stat this season.
The one potential issue for Baltimore on Sunday is how susceptible Burnes has been to hard contact in his first three starts with the Orioles.
This season against Burnes, hitters have a higher barrel rate (6.3%), exit velocity (90.3), hard-hit rate (39.6) and launch angle (12.7) than at any point since he won his Cy Young – concerning since the Brewers lead the majors in home runs per game (1.6) after hitting five in the first two games in Baltimore and 10 in their last six games.
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Brewers vs. Orioles pick
It’s difficult to imagine the Brewers being shut down completely on Sunday considering they’ve scored seven or more runs in six straight games, one shy of a franchise record.
But there’s a reason the Orioles made a bold move to acquire Burnes in the offseason, paying a steep price for a player with just one year left on his contract.
He’s a certified slump buster who during his time in Milwaukee helped get the Brewers to the playoffs in five of his six seasons there.
Mix in some bad blood against his old team (or at least team management), and we have the makings for another dominant performance by Burnes, who has pitched at least six innings in his first three starts.
With Rea due for some regression, look for Burnes to hold down this hot Brewers lineup and for Baltimore to grab an early lead.