The Cincinnati Reds took full advantage of a matchup versus a horrific White Sox team over the weekend, generating 27 runs in a three-game sweep.
Don’t be surprised if they have a letdown in their series opener against the Mariners on Monday night.
Seattle sends high-quality starter George Kirby to the mound.
Here’s a look at the matchup and why we’re targeting the total in this MLB game.
Reds vs. Mariners odds
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | +1.5 (-165) | +125 | o7.5 (+100) |
| Mariners | -1.5 (+140) | -150 | u7.5 (-120) |
Reds vs. Mariners prediction
Kirby finished eighth in last year’s AL Cy Young voting, and was a trendy pick to remain in the mix in 2024.
Two of his three starts this season have been a disaster and he enters Monday’s game with an ERA of 8.16 as a result.
However, there are no serious negatives from those performances that warrant changing any beliefs about Kirby’s elite upside.
His 108 Stuff+ in his last start rates comparably with the 106 mark he posted in 2023. He has pitched to an xERA of just 3.64 this season.
In 2023, Kirby owned a stellar 2.70 ERA in 93 1/3 innings tossed at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, and had a FIP of 2.90.
It seems probable that he will bounce back with a better outing Monday.
That might not necessarily result in him collecting his second win of the season, as Frankie Montas has been strong this year, while the Mariners offense has been flat.
Montas entered the season fully healthy and has enjoyed a nice bounce-back start after missing the majority of 2023 following shoulder surgery.
He has pitched to an xERA of 2.75 and an xFIP of 3.87. He owns a quality Stuff+ of 105, with elite ratings on both his fastballs.
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Reds vs. Mariners pick
The Mariners’ offense has not been overly formidable to this point.
It ranks 28th in wRC+ at 78, and and in strikeout percentage at 28.6%. In splits versus right-handed pitching in particular, Seattle ranks last in MLB with a wRC+ of 69.
This sets up as a good spot to target a pitchers duel with a bet on the under. Anything better than -120 is worthy of a play on the under 7.5.