It’s another loaded Wednesday slate in MLB, with 16 games on the schedule.
It’s getaway for several clubs, so with plenty of afternoon games on the card let’s take advantage and find some winners.
MLB best bets for Wednesday
Reid Detmers over 5.5 strikeouts (-155, bet365)
I’ve been betting pitcher strikeouts for a few years now, and they’ve treated me well. They’re not for everyone, though, as most of the better lines are heavily juiced.
But when betting Ks, I’d rather be ahead of the line movement. That being said, I typically don’t dabble in anything more than -170, it’s just too tough to stomach.
Regardless, Detmers is in a really nice spot Wednesday against Tampa Bay. He’s a pitcher who has continued to improve every single season.
The Angels’ southpaw is a funny study, as he has struck out more right-handed hitters (28%) than lefties (17%) dating back to the beginning of last season.
Most teams continue to platoon as many right-handed hitters as possible when a lefty is on the bump. But, in theory, if you look at Detmers’ large sample size, the Rays should be jamming lefties at the plate Wednesday, but they are projected to roll out an entire nine-man crew of right-handed batters.
I can’t totally blame them, however, as two of their best left-handed hitters (Josh Lowe and Brandon Lowe) are on the shelf. None of this might matter, as Detmers is off to a scorching start this season, striking out 40% of batters.
Tampa doesn’t have a ton of high-strikeout bats, but Detmers’ swinging-strike rate is up roughly 4% from last season, and I’m backing him to punch out at least six Rays.
Paul Blackburn more than 17.5 pitching outs (PrizePicks)
Blackburn isn’t exactly a household name, and he doesn’t have great swing-and-miss stuff, but he’s been fantastic and efficient to start the season.
The A’s “ace” has sparkling metrics across the board through a handful of starts, including a 52% ground-ball rate and a microscopic 3% barrel rate.
His opponent on Wednesday, St. Louis, has been underwhelming to begin 2024, ranking 24th in both wOBA and OBP against right-handed pitching. There are also five Cards in the projected lineup who have walk rates lower than 5% this season.
The ball will likely be put into play often, but Blackburn has given up just 15% of hard contact this season.
He also has the luxury of throwing at the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum — another reason I like six-plus innings to be “in the cards” for Blackburn on Wednesday.
Michael Busch to hit a home run (+460, FanDuel)
Let’s have some fun with this one.
The Cubs’ rookie has been on an incredible stretch, homering in five consecutive games before taking an 0-for-4 on Tuesday.
Now that he’s had a night off from going yard, he’s ready to get back on the saddle. I’m only half-joking.
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Opposing pitcher Brandon Pfaadt of Arizona is great to home-run hunt against; he’s been a fly-ball pitcher dating back to the beginning of 2023, and he owns just a 19% ground-ball rate vs. left-handed batters on the young season.
Last year, Pfaadt had a 12% barrel rate and .238 ISO, so there is power to be had against him.
Busch has been pretty miserable against lefties but owns a 12% barrel rate and a .282 ISO against righties dating back to his cup of coffee in 2023.