The Red Sox started scorching hot, winning seven of 10 West Coast games to open the season and climb into first place in the AL East.
But since returning to Fenway, the Sox have dropped six of nine, even after a 2-0 victory over Cleveland on Tuesday.
The bats have cooled off, and the defense has dropped off a cliff, partially due to Trevor Story’s season-ending shoulder surgery in early April that ended his season before it truly began.
They’ll attempt to hold off the ever-frisky Guardians on Thursday afternoon, trying to salvage a series tie after losing the first two in a four-game set.
Cooper Criswell, who was called up following an injury to de-facto ace Nick Pivetta, will get the bulk of the work for the Red Sox. In front of him will be opener Brennan Bernardino, but we can expect Criswell to get a starter’s workload this afternoon.
The Guardians will counter with Carlos “Cookie” Carrasco, the former New York Met who’s pitched to a 3.55 ERA in three starts since returning home.
Guardians vs. Red Sox odds
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians | -1.5 (+152) | -102 | o9 (-122) |
| Red Sox | +1.5 (-184) | -116 | u9 (+100) |
Guardians vs Red Sox prediction
(1:35 p.m. ET, NESN)
Criswell, who spent his first MLB two seasons in Tampa Bay, is a classic Rays pitcher – a fungible, versatile arm who can generate outs across multiple innings anytime, anywhere.
The Rays used him as a bulk reliever, where he threw multiple innings in all 10 relief appearances last season. Alex Cora hopes he can do something similar in Back Bay by providing reliable innings when the Red Sox need them most.
And Boston needs reliable innings with Nick Pivetta, Lucas Giolito, Chris Murphy and Liam Hendriks on the Injured List.
Criswell’s arsenal is paradoxical. He has low velocity, as all four of his offerings check in under 90 mph. Yet the advanced pitching models love him, and he’s flashed strikeout upside in the minors.
However, the 27-year-old combines great extension with excellent movement across all four pitches. His changeup drops violently while his sweeper and sinker break across the plate in separate directions.
Not surprisingly, then, his Stuff+ numbers jumped off the charts in the minors.
So far, they have held up in his four Major League innings this season.
Criswell enters Thursday’s start with three plus pitches by the model, a 112 Stuff+ rating overall and a 108 Location+ rating. Two of his pitches boast a whiff rate above 25%.
Moreover, he has used his soft-tossing, high-spin, stuff-friendly offerings to induce weak contact. He could become a ground-ball-and-whiff pitcher with a rather unique set of traits.
While it’s uncertain if he can provide enough consistent length to develop into a solid middle-rotation piece, his upside is intriguing.
Meanwhile, we’ve come to know what to expect from Carrasco, whose fastball velocity is at its lowest ever (91.3 mph on average), and the Stuff+ rating on that pitch has dropped to a lowly 70.
That’s cut into his strikeout-and-whiff upside while forcing him to nibble around the edges more, pushing his walk rate into astronomical territory; Carrasco has walked nine batters in 12 ⅔ innings this season.
Even worse, he has struggled in Back Bay, allowing 21 earned runs in 16⅓ career innings at Fenway Park, posting only 17 strikeouts while issuing 10 free passes.
In his only start against the Red Sox last season, Carrasco surrendered five earned runs on five hits and two walks across 2⅓ innings.
Guardians vs Red Sox Pick
Both offenses provide limited upside, and the Guardians have significant advantages in the bullpen and on defense. Meanwhile, Boston’s defense is a complete mess.
However, I’m looking to fade Carrasco’s ever-declining stuff in a hitter-friendly park, and I believe Criswell offers enough stuff to support the fade.
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Therefore, I’ll bet directly on Criswell and against Carrasco by taking the Red Sox in the first half, hoping the Sox can jump all over the Guardians’ starter early while Criswell keeps the Guardians’ bats at bay.
I’m happy to avoid betting on the latter innings, where the Red Sox defense could rear its ugly head.