Teams always look to put themselves in the best possible position for the NBA playoffs as the season wraps up. One team the Lakers were likely hoping to avoid is the Nuggets.
Last season, Denver swept Los Angeles 4-0 in the Western Conference Finals en route to an NBA title. The Nuggets followed that up by winning all three meetings against the Lakers during the regular season.
Denver has now won eight straight games against Los Angeles, and the two teams will meet again, this time in the first round.
Like the entire league, the Lakers have struggled to contain Denver’s Nikola Jokic. Warriors head coach Steve Kerr shared on the Tim Kawakami podcast that the best strategy for slowing down the two-time MVP might be to go right at him.
“You can’t just look at it and say, ‘Well, we need somebody really big and strong to guard Jokic,’” Kerr said.
“You also have to say, ‘All right, at the other end, what are we going to do? How can we make the game more even when you’re going against a guy like that?’ Well, it’s with playmaking and passing and putting the other guy in a difficult spot.”
The reality is it takes all five players on the court to slow Jokic down, but even that might be needed.
Lakers vs. Nuggets odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers | +7.5 (-115) | +240 | o223.5 (-115) |
| Nuggets | -7.5 (-105) | -305 | u223.5 (-105) |
Lakers analysis
Last year, the Lakers lost 132-126 on the road in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals in Denver.
Despite the loss, the media spoke glowingly about the Lakers and their plan to slow Jokic down by using Rui Hachimura to defend him.
The Lakers power forward defended Jokic with 10 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, limiting him to 1-of-3 shooting with three turnovers.
However, Nuggets head coach Michael Malone attributed the struggles to Denver’s lack of production on defense in forcing turnovers to create fast break opportunities.
Malone added that his goal was to prevent the Lakers from getting in their half-court defense as much as possible.
This season, the Lakers continue to struggle defensively in transition, ranking 27th with 16.3 fast break points allowed per game.
While the Lakers were a top-10 team in defensive efficiency last year, they’ve dropped to 17th during this campaign, even with LeBron James and Anthony Davis playing 70+ games compared to around 55.
Thus, the Lakers haven’t done enough to address a weakness that the Nuggets are likely to exploit.
Nuggets analysis
It’ll be interesting to see what new adjustments the Lakers will try to make this time. Jokic can make even a competent defender like Davis look very ordinary.
The Lakers switched Hachimura on Jokic primarily because Davis was largely ineffective against the Serbian center.
In 51 possessions, Jokic shot 8-of-10 while dishing out 11 assists.
Whatever subsequent changes the Lakers tried to make didn’t work, as he finished the series averaging a triple-double with 27.8 points, 14.5 rebounds and 11.8 assists.
I looked at their last meeting on Mar. 2 to see if the Lakers were still deploying their strategy with Hachimura.
According to the NBA’s Advanced Player Tracking, Hachimura guarded the Denver center for roughly nine minutes, but Jokic scored 25 of his 35 points within this matchup.
As a result, Lakers head coach Darvin Ham will have to go back to the drawing board to devise another plan to corral one of the most versatile players in league history.
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Lakers vs. Nuggets pick
The Lakers’ struggles against the Nuggets are enough to give me pause in backing the visitors in this series opener.
I’m not sure Los Angeles has narrowed the gap, considering it hasn’t covered the spread in the last five meetings.
However, it’s worth noting that this point spread of 7.5 is the highest we’ve seen between the two teams in the last six games.
While it’s possible that number is slightly inflated, I prefer to wait and see how the Lakers’ defensive strategy plays out.
But based on what we’ve seen thus far, if the gap still exists, it’s unlikely we’ll get a Game 7 in this series.
Thus, this is a great spot to back the defending champions on the DraftKings series spread of -1.5 at -140. Given that this number is already up to -170 at some sportsbooks, we’re getting a decent amount of value at the current price.
Pick: Nuggets to win the series by -1.5 games (-140 at DraftKings)