Brandon Pfaadt and Lance Lynn will go head-to-head in Monday’s series opener between the Diamondbacks and Cardinals.
Lynn’s 2.18 ERA is far superior to Pfaadt’s 5.32 mark so far this season, but all indications are that these starters will begin to head in opposite directions from this point forward.
Oddsmakers have the game priced as a pick’em, which gives us betting value on one of these team’s moneyline.
Let’s dive into Monday’s MLB matchup between Arizona and St. Louis and make a pick.
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals odds
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 (+155) | -110+145 | o8.5 (-110) |
| Cardinals | +1.5 (-185) | -110 | u8.5 (-110) |
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals prediction
(7:45 p.m. ET)
Pfaadt has pitched to a strong Pitching+ of 108, which suggests he is not a starter who will post an ERA above 4.25 this season.
He owns a 3.57 xFIP in 2024, and has improved his ground ball rate to 37.5% and his K-rate to 22.8%.
Opponents likely won’t hold a .319 BABIP moving forward, and when that mark inevitably comes down, Pfaadt should start to live up to the hype.
Lynn is at the exact opposite end of the spectrum, as he has greatly overachieved his 4.43 xFIP due to an 87.6% strand rate and .241 BABIP.
He has pitched to a Stuff+ rating of just 82, and his hard-hit percentage of 45.2% agrees with the idea that his arsenal is ineffective.
Lynn should improve on the 5.72 ERA we saw last season (when he posted a ridiculous 2.16 HR/9), but not too significantly.
Lynn has allowed a 54% hard-hit rate in non-two-strike counts this season, which is the fifth-highest mark among qualified starters.
Arizona has displayed great plate discipline in 2024, and should be able to take advantage in hitter-friendly counts.
The Diamondbacks have been significantly more effective than the Cardinals at the plate overall. They have hit to a wRC+ of 105, compared to the Cardinals wRC+ of 82.
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The Diamondbacks BB/K of 0.57 ranks second in the league, and their xSLG of .403 ranks 14th. The Cardinals BB/K of 0.40 ranks 14th, and their xSLG of .371 ranks 27th.
The Diamondbacks were also one of the best defensive teams in the league last season and should prove to be better than the Cardinals in that regard in 2024, which offers another edge to Pfaadt.
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals pick
Arizona holds more advantages than the current betting prices suggests, and if this game took place two months from now, the prices might be entirely different.