Grayson Rodriguez has been among the best pitchers in the American League for what has quietly become a lengthy sample.
Let’s take a look at why that matters in Tuesday’s matchup between the Orioles and Angels in Anaheim.
Orioles vs. Angels odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles | -160 | -1.5 (+102) | o8.5 (-114) |
| Angels | +135 | +1.5 (-122) | u8.5 (-106) |
Orioles vs. Angels prediction
Since being recalled by the Orioles last July, the right-handed Rodriguez has pitched to an ERA of 2.59 across 100 2/3 innings. He’s allowed an xFIP of only 3.65 in that span.
He has pitched to a 115 Stuff+ this season, and has located effectively as well with a 102 Location+ rating.
He has successfully worked a quality changeup and excellent curveball off of his high velocity fastball (averaging 96.2 mph this year) to good results. Batters own an xSLG of .254 and .212 off of those two pitches, respectively.
Rodriguez has managed to finish five or more innings in each of his four starts this season for a total of 24 innings, including a strong opening day showing against the Angels in which he picked up the win in six innings of work (4 hits, 1 ER, 9 Ks, 1 BB).
The Angels have hit to a wRC+ of only 92 versus righties this season. They have struck out 23.5% of the time, and they safely project to be a below-average side versus right-handed pitching moving forward.
There is a good chance we see Rodriguez backed by some early run support, as a high-powered Orioles offense matches up against Griffin Canning.
Canning’s strikeout percentage has trended down to 18.2% this season, which coincides with a lesser Stuff+ of 84.
He owns an xERA of 5.31, an xFIP of 4.89,and has allowed an xSLG of .797 with his fastball, which he throws 39.9% of the time.
The Orioles have hit to a wRC+ of 130 versus right-handed pitching this season, which is the second-best mark in MLB. They have struck out only 20% of the time versus righties, and own a league leading 35% hard-hit rate.
In splits to both sides, Baltimore owns a league-leading .485 xSLG rate this season. Their 5.73 runs scored per game ranks second in MLB.
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Orioles vs. Angels pick
Rodriguez is priced at +145 to record a win on bet365, and I see value with that number.
He has a great chance of posting a quality outing versus this Angels lineup, and should receive early run support as one of the league’s best offenses takes on Canning.