Michael Penix Jr. lit up the college football world last season with 4,903 passing yards and 36 touchdowns to 11 interceptions.
In the process, he led Washington to a Pac-12 Championship and national title game appearance. He made full use of his sixth year of eligibility, but it wasn’t easy to get to this point for Penix, who brings with him into the 2024 NFL Draft a complicated injury history.
Penix is seeing significant first-round buzz from industry experts and media circles, and the betting odds reflect that sentiment.
Where does the betting opportunity lie for him? Let’s take a look at the current odds.
Draft position odds for Michael Penix Jr.
DraftKings currently has Penix priced at -320 to be selected under the draft position of 32.5, essentially meaning he’s a -320 favorite to be a first-round pick. Meanwhile, Penix is +240 to go over 32.5 or outside the first round.
The favorite to land Penix is the Raiders at +200 on DraftKings, while the Vikings are second at +400. Minnesota currently picks at No. 11, with Las Vegas sitting at No. 13.
The Seahawks (+550), Broncos (+650), and Patriots (+850) round out the top five. All three of those teams own picks in the Round 1 between third overall and 16th.
Be fore discussing specific team fits, let’s first take a look at Penix’s draft profile.
Strengths and weaknesses
While Penix’s funky left-handed throwing motion looks quite different from that of most NFL starters, he gets plenty of velocity and touch on his throws to all three levels.
He has excellent arm strength to push the ball deep downfield and is adept at throwing outside the numbers. He ranked 10th in the FBS with a big-time throw rate of 7.3%, per PFF, and his 43 big-time throws led the country.
However, Penix wasn’t asked to throw the ball over the middle of the field much at Washington, and he certainly will be in the NFL.
He also showed inconsistent ball placement, and his 39.5% uncatchable pass rate on throws of 10-plus yards is tied for the highest in this draft class.
Penix gives his receivers a chance to make plays downfield, but he won’t wow you with precision throws into tight windows.
He also tends to fall away when throwing against pressure, causing the ball to sail, which was reflected in a significant drop of more than 20% in his adjusted completion rate under pressure.
Penix also scrambled just five times on 158 pressured dropbacks last season, and his inability to extend plays with his legs mixes poorly with his shaky accuracy under pressure.
A complicated injury history
One of the significant red flags in Penix’s profile is his injury history. While at Indiana, he suffered four season-ending injuries in four years, including two torn ACLs.
He transferred to Washington, where he had two fully healthy seasons with high-level productivity under his former Hoosiers OC and new head coach Kalen DeBoer, .
In a letter he penned for the Player’s Tribune, Penix attempted to answer some of the questions teams will have about his injury history. He countered concerns, saying he has shown coaches “what that looks like” in regards to his ability to come back from injuries.
“I have no problem taking all the MRIs and X-rays you ask of me,” he wrote. “Truth is, it’s an EKG that will tell you everything you need to know of me.”
Penix is well-spoken and a good human being by all accounts. He also refused to leave the national title game against an historic Michigan defense despite taking a beating.
Still, there’s no denying that some teams will have him off the board entirely due to his past injuries.
Where does the betting value lie?
The hype surrounding Penix’s first-round potential is deafening, but I’m still not buying in.
In recent years, we’ve seen players like Hendon Hooker, Will Levis and Malik Willis draw significant first-round hype before falling much further in the draft than anyone anticipated. To me, Penix is this year’s version of that player.
I still believe the Vikings will trade up for a quarterback in the top five, while the Seahawks (Sam Howell) and Broncos (Zach Wilson) have already brought in young passers who are in the same age range as Penix. It’s tough to imagine them spending a first-rounder on the Washington QB after making those moves.
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If Penix falls to Day 2, one team that could make sense for him is the Giants, currently priced at +1100 to land his services. They can’t get out of the Daniel Jones contract until next offseason at the earliest, but they could target Penix early in the second round.
The Dolphins are another intriguing fit at +2000 with some uncertainty surrounding a potential looming contract extension for Tua Tagovailoa.
I already recommended taking under 4.5 first-round quarterbacks in a previous article, and while the market has moved against me, nothing about my stance on this year’s quarterback class has changed.
Penix’s profile has things to like, but I don’t see him as a first-round-caliber prospect.