With Nestor Cortes starting Thursday against Alex Wood, we should expect the Yankees to close out their series against the Oakland A’s with a comfortable win.
Let’s take a look at the MLB matchup and make a pick.
A’s vs. Yankees odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runs Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| A’s | +200 | +1.5 (+100) | o8 (-105) |
| Yankees | -250 | -1.5 (-120) | u8 (-115) |
A’s vs. Yankees prediction
Cortes has pitched to an ERA of 3.41 in 2024, and most indicators suggest he has been every bit as good as that number suggests. He owns a WHIP of 1.07, and has pitched to an xERA of 2.74.
In an era of overpowering pitchers, Cortes is a throwback who has dominated based upon the ability to keep batters guessing.
Hitters have struggled versus his cutter, sweeper and changeup, and have only found any real success off his fastball this season.
Excellent command over his deep arsenal was a strength throughout his breakout 2022 campaign, and it has been a strength in 2024 again.
He owns a Location+ of 104 and has allowed three-ball counts to just 13% of batters faced this season.
The A’s have hit to a wRC+ of 94 versus left-handed pitching. They generated hard contact only 26.5% of the time and have struck out 26% of the time.
Alex Wood presents a soft target for Yankees batters. The 33-year-old lefty has lost some velocity compared to the 2023 season so far, and now owns a Stuff+ rating of just 74.
He has an average spin rate of just 2013.5 RPM on his slider since the beginning of last season, which ranks fourth-worst among starters to throw 73 or more innings.
It’s a small sample of 21 2/3 innings, but Wood has been hard-hit 48.6% of the time and has struck out only 18.5% of batters faced.
The causation seems clear. He does not have swing-and-miss stuff at all, and if he is in the zone, batters are going to be on it. Hitters have a line drive rate of 33% on his pitches in the strike zone this season.
The Yankees are in their lesser splits versus left-handed pitching, but still own a wRC+ of 100.
That mark could improve based upon their process and the talent on the roster. They own a fourth-best BB/K of 0.55 versus lefties.
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A’s vs. Yankees pick
We should see the Yankees able to take advantage of this favorable matchup with an early lead.
They are worthy of a bet to cover the first five innings.