Abortion is expected to be on the ballot in Arizona and Florida in November, but the issue is not shaping up to be the boost President Biden needs to win the two states, according to a new poll.
Voters in both states overwhelmingly support abortion access but are still favoring former President Donald Trump over Biden 52% to 47% in Arizona and 54% to 45% in Florida, per a CBS/YouGov survey.
Democrats have typically been able to pummel Republicans over the hot-button issue.
In Florida in April, the state’s supreme court upheld a six-week abortion ban that went into effect earlier this month and green-lit a referendum to enshrine abortion access into the state’s constitution.
Unlike other states that necessitated a majority threshold on their abortion referendums, Florida requires 60% of voters to approve it.
Despite once being the quintessential battleground state, Florida has lurched considerably red over recent years, and Republicans now tout a majority of registered voters there.
Still, the Biden-Harris campaign has opened up an office there, and both Biden as well as Vice President Kamala Harris have ventured down to Florida in a bid to keep it in the realm of possibility.
In the Sunshine State, 65% wanted abortion legal in all or most cases, compared to 35% who wanted it illegal in all or most cases, the poll shows.
But for Florida, abortion (53%) lagged behind other issues such as the economy (89%), inflation (84%), the state of democracy (74%), crime (69%), gun policy (60%) and the US-Mexico border (64%) as a “major factor” for the state’s voters in 2024.
A similar trend was true in Arizona.
Earlier this month, Arizona Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs signed a bill repealing a 160-year-old law restricting most abortions performed in the state.
Activists in the state claim to have already amassed the signatures needed for a ballot initiative in November to codify a woman’s right to abortion access in Arizona’s constitution.
About 66% of Arizonans want abortion legal in all or most cases, compared to 34% who want it illegal in all or most cases, the poll says.
As with Florida, abortion (51%) trailed other issues such as the economy (82%), inflation (78%), the state of democracy (70%), crime (59%), and the US-Mexico border (61%) as a “major factor” for Arizona voters in 2024.
Notably, in Arizona, Republican Senate hopeful Kari Lake is running behind Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) 36% to 49% in the race for the coveted seat, according to the poll.
Trump narrowly lost Arizona to Biden, 49.06% to 49.36%, in 2020 but beat him in Florida 51.22% to 47.86% that year.
The 77-year-old former president has moderated himself on the albatross issue ahead of his rematch against his 81-year-old successor and announced that he would defer to the states on abortion.
Simultaneously, Trump publicly contended that Arizona’s 160-year-old abortion policy went too far.
The CBS/YouGov poll was conducted between March 10–16 and sampled 1,510 adults in Arizona with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points and 1,576 adults in Florida with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
