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Mets vs. Guardians prediction: Bet on Tylor Megill to hold early lead

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Social Links for Nicholas Martin, Action Network
Published May 20, 2024, 2:00 p.m. ET
Tylor Megill gets another crack at the rotation for the Mets.
Tylor Megill gets another crack at the rotation for the Mets. Getty Images

Tylor Megill will return from the injured list in the Mets’ series opener against the Guardians on Monday.

Megill developed two new pitches this offseason, and was considered a pitcher who could potentially be surprisingly effective.

Megill had some strong showings in spring training and was off to a solid opening outing prior to his injury.

The consensus projection for Megill this season was an ERA close to 4.50.

Given that we have no sample of his new-look arsenal at the big-league level, it’s fairly difficult to project how he might perform.

In Megill’s last rehab start, he threw four hitless innings with seven strikeouts and a total of 62 pitches.

Ben Lively will start for the Guardians.

He has overachieved his 4.21 xERA and 4.46 xFIP with a 3.06 ERA across 32 ¹/₃ innings. His Stuff+ rating of just 77 is actually worse than his 2023 mark, a season in which he owned an ERA of 5.38.

The advanced stats show that Ben Lively has been lucky more than good.
The advanced stats show that Ben Lively has been lucky more than good. Getty Images

Opponents own a hard-hit rate of 58 percent versus Lively’s fastballs this season, which is the fifth-highest mark among pitchers to throw 16 or more innings.

The Mets have hit to a wRC+ of 101 versus right-handed pitching this season, while the Guardians own a wRC+ of only 98 versus right-handed pitching.

The Guardians have hit to the second-best average in the league with RISP at .295. If their dominance in clutch AB’s regresses to league average though, their overall offensive process is going to look middling. Their .372 xSLG rate ranks second last in baseball, and their .302 xwOBA ranks fourth worst.

There is a wide range of outcomes surrounding Megill as he returns from the IL in this matchup.

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He could prove to be the better of these two starters this season though, and the Mets have quietly been the more effective of these two offenses versus right-handed pitchers.

Bet on the Mets to surprise and win the first five innings in Megill’s return to action.

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