The Yankees are riding high with a 34-17 start to the 2024 season — and the oddsmakers are believers.
After opening the year in a near three-way tie at the top of the American League oddsboard, they have usurped the field to grab clear favorite status.
They are currently sitting at +250 on BetMGM to win the American League pennant — substantially higher than the next-best odds of +425 on the Orioles — and things may be a little bit out of control.
We know that the Yankees are expecting back their ace Gerrit Cole and have a lineup that features Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and budding star Anthony Volpe.
But there are some new faces that may be playing above their capabilities.
No one saw the Yankees putting up a league-best ERA with a starting rotation absent Cole, but Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt are homegrown hurlers excelling so far.
There are signs, though, that the starters may be luckier than they are good.
Fangraphs is painting a picture of regression coming for the Yankee rotation, most notably Schmidt and Carlos Rodon, who have a home-run-to-fly ball rate of more than 11 percent despite having some of the best ERAs among American League starters.
Rodon, in particular, could be victimized by regression, with a 4.46 FIP substantially higher than his 3.27 ERA.
As for Gil, he entered Thursday’s start against the Mariners stranding runners at an incredible 80.3 percent rate, 25th-best in all of baseball, and his 4.96 walks per nine innings is the fifth-most among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched.
American League pennant odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yankees | +250 |
| Orioles | +425 |
| Astros | +700 |
| Mariners | +750 |
| Rangers | +800 |
| Twins | 11/1 |
| Guardians | 11/1 |
Schmidt may be in line for some regression off his sparkling 2.56 ERA as well, stemming from a 3.53 FIP with an HR/FB rate at 11.3 percent, profiling as below-average, and his average exit velocity is nothing to write home about as well (80th percentile via Statcast).
These success stories on their pitching staff, as well as impressive seasons from Alex Verdugo and Jose Trevino on the offensive side, have made many forget that this team was just 82-80 in 2023.
And yes, Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner saying the current payroll situation is unsustainable seemingly doesn’t make it seem like the Yankees have the appetite to eat salary before the trade deadline.
The Yankees should consider trading for A’s closer Mason Miller to help a bullpen that lacks reliable pieces, even if Luke Weaver has been fantastic.
Between regression coming for a few key rotation pieces, this Yankee team will need to make moves at the deadline if it wants to have a chance at covering this lofty AL Pennant price that oddsmakers are hanging over it.
We all remember the 2022 Yankees that started 61-23 before fizzling out by the season’s end and being swept by the Astros in the ALCS.
In order to avoid a similar letdown this year after another extremely hot start, the Yankees will likely need some help at the trade deadline.
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The Bombers have the ninth-most challenging remaining schedule, according to Tankathon, after being about middle of the pack so far (16th).
It’s hard to argue with a bet elsewhere at current prices, notably the streaking Astros, who are as high as +850 on DraftKings and have a proven postseason track record.