Trump leads Biden in six swing states and tied in a seventh: poll
Former President Donald Trump is ahead of President Biden in six swing states and is tied with the incumbent in a seventh, a new 2024 election poll shows.
Head-to-head, Trump leads Biden in the battleground states of Arizona (45%-44%), Georgia (47%-44%), Michigan (47%-45%), Nevada (49%-40%), North Carolina (48%-41%) and Pennsylvania (48%-45%), according to the Cook Political Report survey released Thursday.
The presumptive Republican nominee for president’s margins improved or remained the same in all but one state – Nevada – when third-party candidates were included, the poll found.
In a five-way race, Trump is up 41%-37% in Arizona; 42%-38% in Georgia; 43%-40% in Michigan; 43%-35% in Nevada; 44%-36% in North Carolina; and 43%-40% in Pennsylvania.
Voters were split between the two candidates in Wisconsin, with both Trump and Biden receiving 45% support in a head-to-head contest and 41% support with third-party options. The state went for Trump in 2016 and for Biden in 2020.
In the seven states combined, Trump’s lead over Biden was measured at 47% to 44% head-to-head and grew to 43% to 38% with third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr, Cornel West and Jill Stein in the picture.
The poll also found that a majority of voters were more worried about Biden’s age than Trump’s criminal cases.
When asked whether Trump’s “temperament and legal issues” or Biden’s “age and ability to perform his duties” were more concerning, more than half (53%) responded that the 81-year-old president’s stage of life and mental acuity were more troubling than the 77-year-old former president’s four criminal cases and the two civil judgments against him.
Most voters also believe Trump would likely finish a second term, but Biden – the oldest president in US history – would not.
Sixty-six percent of respondents aren’t convinced Biden can complete a second term in the White House, compared to 41% who said the same of Trump.
Among just Biden voters, a stunning 41% said the president won’t be able to complete a second term, whereas only 22% of Trump voters said the same about their preferred candidate.
The poll, conducted for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report by GS Strategy Group (a Republican polling firm), and BSG (a Democratic polling firm), surveyed 3,969 voters in the seven battleground states between May 6 to May 13.
