The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Wine Country this weekend for its annual trip to Sonoma Raceway.
This marks the second road course race of the season, after William Byron won at COTA in March.
Road-course racing can bring surprising results, but it will be tough to top last week’s finish.
Christopher Bell had the dominant car before a late engine issue cost him a top-five finish.
Then, Ryan Blaney ran out of gas while leading on the final lap.
FanDuel has past road-course winners Martin Truex Jr. (+600), Kyle Larson (+750) and William Byron (+750) as the favorites.
You can watch the Toyota Save/Mart 350 on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. on FOX.
Here are some of our best bets:
Ty Gibbs to win (+900, Caesars)
Gibbs has been one of the best road-course drivers since entering NASCAR.
He scored four road course wins in the Xfinity Series before moving to the Cup Series.
Since the beginning of 2023, he ranks fourth in total speed across all road-course races.
He’s had the second-fastest car in three straight road-course races, leading to a trio of top-five finishes.
He wasn’t great in last year’s Sonoma race, but I wouldn’t let that discourage you. Gibbs has had much more speed in 2024.
Elliott, Bell, Ross Chastain, Daniel Suarez and Tyler Reddick scored their first career wins on road courses. It wouldn’t surprise me if Gibbs joined that group on Sunday.
Tyler Reddick top-five finish (+160, bet365)
Not long ago, Elliott was the road-course king in the Cup Series.
Elliott remains a threat on road courses, but Reddick might be the new best road-course racer in the Cup Series.
Over the past 13 road-course races, Reddick has two finishes worse than eighth. That includes three wins and seven top-five finishes.
Reddick is a good pick to win Sunday, but Sonoma has been the one road-course track that has given him issues.
Still, I believe he will overcome the issues and contend for a top-five finish.
Chris Buescher-AJ Allmendinger top-10 finish (+140, Caesars)
Buescher has finished in the top 10 in 10 of the past 11 road-course races, with the lone exception being an 11th-place finish.
Sonoma has been especially kind to Buescher, who has ranked first and second in speed rankings over the past two races.
Buescher finished top-five in both races.
My top-10 parlay combines Buescher with Allmendinger.
Road-course races are Allmendinger’s specialty, as he has eight top-10 finishes in his past 10 starts at the track type.
I’d expect both drivers in contention on Sunday, with a top-10 finish being their floor.
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Christopher Bell over Kyle Larson (-115, DraftKings)
This marks the second straight week I’m fading Larson in a driver matchup.
That won’t happen often, but I don’t see the same upside in Larson as in Bell at Sonoma.
Larson set the world on fire in 2021, including three road-course wins.
Since then, he has just four top-10 finishes in 12 road-course races.
Bell has eight top-10 finishes in that same span, including four in his past five races.
He was far better in the lone road-course race of 2024, finishing second to Larson’s 17th.
Bell has been the car to beat in back-to-back races.
That momentum, plus his road course success, should keep him ahead of Larson at Sonoma.