We typically see a lot of videos on social media showing the thickness of the rough during the practice rounds for the U.S. Open.
This year, it’s been the treacherous greens.
They are firm, they are fast, and they are going to cause a lot of headaches.
Balls have been seen landing on the green and rolling 40 yards off into sandy waste areas.
Pinehurst No. 2 is not your typical U.S. Open test.
While the course is extremely long (nearly 7,600 yards) for a par-70, this is not about who can hit the ball the farthest.
There is little rough to speak of (both off the fairways and off the greens), and when golfers stray too far offline, they will be at the mercy of lady luck.
While the length is daunting, the firmness of the fairways should make the course play shorter than the number on the scorecard.
Playing from the fairway will be critical, so I am focusing more on total driving (combination of distance and accuracy).
The last three winners at Pinehurst No. 2 were all inside the top five in scrambling and putting.
A tidy short game is vitally important.
Ideally, I am looking for golfers who are good in four areas: total driving, long irons, around the green and putting.
Experience in majors and a good track record on long and difficult courses are also positives.
Here are my best bets for the 2024 U.S. Open (odds via BetMGM):
Collin Morikawa (14/1)
Scottie Scheffler has won five of his last eight events and is the best golfer in the world.
Nevertheless, I can’t bet him at +333 odds in a field of 156 golfers.
My plan this week is to split my outright bets with a half-unit going to the outright and a half-unit going to the winner-without-Scheffler market (12/1 for Morikawa).
I love the way Morikawa’s game is trending right now.
His short game was carrying him for much of the season, but he has gained 8.2, 7.9 and 6.9 strokes ball-striking in his last three starts (all top-4 finishes).
He’s one of the best total drivers and long-iron players in the field.
If he can combine that with his recent short-game prowess, I like his chances to be in the mix on Sunday.
Bryson DeChambeau (20/1)
DeChambeau might have a wider range of outcomes than most golfers in the field, but that’s typically a positive when it comes to betting the outright market.
We don’t care about a player’s floor. We care about his ceiling.
He’s a cerebral golfer, so expect him to have a better game plan than most for Pinehurst No. 2.
DeChambeau already won the U.S. Open and has contended at each of the first two majors this season.
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One bad chip took him out of the Masters and he was a lip-out away from going into a playoff with Xander Schauffele at the PGA Championship.
He’s a golfer who won’t back down if he’s in a position to win on Sunday.
Tyrrell Hatton top-10 finish (+400)
Given the firmness of the course and the fact that every golfer will have bad breaks at some point during the tournament, many are worried about Hatton’s temperament.
I have no issue with him expressing his frustration on the course. He has even talked about it helping him get it out of his system and focus on the next shot.
From a statistical standpoint, there are few better.
He’s well above average in all four of the strokes gained categories, and he finished in the top 10 at the Masters. This course suits his game.