“I think, over the years, I’ve kind of evolved.”
— Carrot Top
Wanting to improve yourself is natural.
If you don’t like the way you look, eat differently and work out.
If you want to improve your self-esteem, say positive things to yourself and stop comparing yourself to others.
If you think you smell, shower.
There are always opportunities to improve yourself, just as there are always opportunities to improve your fantasy team — especially with players who have bettered themselves, like the Nationals’ second-year starter Jake Irvin.
Over his first 14 starts, Irvin is 5-5 with a 3.00 ERA, 69-15 strikeout-walk rate and .225 opponents’ average.
In nine starts since allowing six runs against the Dodgers on April 24, Irvin is 4-3 with a 2.19 ERA, 46-8 strikeout-walk rate and .199 opponents’ average.
He allowed more than two earned runs once in that stretch, and is 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA, 25-6 strikeout-walk rate and .198 opponents’ average over his past four starts.
Over his past five starts (all quality starts), he blanked the Braves twice and allowed two earned runs or fewer to the Twins, Guardians and Tigers — and three of those games were on the road. (Fun fact: Irvin is 4-1 with a 2.55 ERA and .199 opponents’ average in nine road starts this season. Assuming he stays healthy and the Nationals’ rotation remains intact, he is in line to pitch four of his next six starts away from Washington. Just saying.)
Since that lousy start against Los Angeles, Irvin had the fifth-lowest walk rate (3.8 percent) in the majors to go along with the seventh-best WHIP (0.90), the 12th-lowest opponents’ average and the 10th-best ERA.
He also struck out 21.8 percent of the batters he faced and had a 10 percent swinging strike rate, both of which ranked in the top 50.
All of this is even more impressive when you consider the 6-foot-6 righty was 3-7 with a 4.61 ERA, 1.421 WHIP, 7.4 strikeouts per nine and 4.0 walks per nine last year.
Has he really shown that much improvement?
In 24 starts in 2023, Irvin allowed 1.49 homers per nine innings.
This year, he has allowed about half that (0.78).
His barrels per plate appearance are down, as is his opponents’ average (.252 to .225), while his whiff, strikeout and swinging strike rates are all up.
Perhaps most impressive is the reduction in free passes.
After walking 4.02 per nine innings last year, Irvin is walking just 1.67 per nine this year.
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So, yes, he has shown a lot of improvement.
This doesn’t mean there is a new ace in town, but it does mean fantasy managers have a trustworthy option who remains available in more than 70 percent of ESPN leagues.
Consider Irvin to be like a younger Seth Lugo who throws slightly harder, is about two inches taller and wins less often (at least this year).
Though he doesn’t have quite as much spin as Lugo on his curve, Irvin owns a 27 percent whiff rate and .186 opponents’ average with the pitch.
He walked 10.2 percent of batters with the pitch last year, but just 3.9 percent this year. H
e also is using the pitch more, throwing it 33.5 percent of the time versus about 30 percent in 2023.
Irvin drastically reduced the usage of his sinker, which opponents hit .348 against last year, and introduced a cutter (5.1 percent walk rate, .254 xBA, 23.8 percent whiff rate) to his arsenal.
Irvin’s underlying numbers (.270 BABIP, 3.24 FIP, 3.56 xFIP, 3.79 xERA) point to regression, but nothing that will make him unusable (though he’s never thrown more than 121 innings in a big-league season, so that’s something to watch).
He may not rack up wins or strikeouts, and he may not be a must-start every time he takes the mound, but he is evolving — and that is enough to make him worthy of your squad.
Big Hits
Michael King P, Padres
Since allowing six earned runs on May 15, he is 2-0 with a 2.20 ERA, 34 strikeouts and a .186 opponents’ average in his past five starts.
Ryan O’Hearn 1B/OF, Orioles
Had at least one hit in nine of his first 11 games this month, hitting .351 with two homers, six RBIs, two stolen bases and a .936 OPS.
Chris Bassitt SP, Blue Jays
After allowing seven runs on April 26, he was 4-2 with a 2.25 ERA, 45 strikeouts and a .219 opponents’ average in his next eight starts.
Jarren Duran OF, Red Sox
Not only did he steal four bases in his first 11 games this month, but he hit .370 with two homers, seven RBIs, 13 runs and had a 1.118 OPS.
He struck out seven times but also walked seven times.
Big Whiffs
Reese Olson SP, Tigers
After owning a 1.92 ERA with .197 opponents’ average and one homer allowed over his first 10 starts, he has gone 0-3 with a 10.43 ERA, .412 opponents’ average and three homers in his past three.
Jo Adell OF, Angels
Average dropped from .252 on May 20 to .194 after going 6-for-65 (.092) with 30 strikeouts and a .391 OPS in his past 20 games.
Michael Kopech P, White Sox
Has three blown saves, a 11.37 ERA and .367 opponents’ average over his past eight appearances.
He has allowed four homers in that span.
Shea Langeliers C, Athletics
Entered Friday without a homer since May 30 and six hits (all singles) in his past 35 at-bats (.171) with 13 strikeouts and a .366 OPS.
Check Swings
– After missing two months with a quad injury, Minnesota’s Royce Lewis returned from the IL to go 11-for-32 (.344) with four homers, seven RBIs, eight runs and a 1.153 OPS in his first nine games. He had at least one hit in eight of those games.
– Luis Robert Jr. had six hits in his first nine games since coming off the IL, five of which were homers. He struck out 13 times and hit .188 in that span.
– Nick Lodolo won his past four decisions while maintaining a 2.31 ERA and .674 OPS. He struck out just 19 in those starts while walking six and allowing opponents to hit .253 against him. His FIP (4.05) indicates he’s gotten lucky in those starts.
– Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller suffered his first loss since April 30 on Thursday. He was 6-0 with a 1.13 ERA, 35-7 strikeout-walk rate and .226 opponents’ average in those six starts, and is 6-2 with a 2.13 ERA, 46-9 strikeout-walk rate and .672 OPS in his past eight.
Team Name of the Week
Berti & Ernie
