Live

Follow The Post's presidential debate updates as Trump, Biden set to spar in Atlanta
Post Action Betting

Yankees vs. Orioles prediction: Aaron Judge smashes Albert Suarez

By
Social Links for Dylan Svoboda
Published June 18, 2024, 3:24 p.m. ET
Aaron Judge has a good shot to go yard against on Tuesday.
Aaron Judge has a good shot to go yard against on Tuesday. Getty Images

On Tuesday night, the Yankees will take on Orioles starter Albert Suarez, who’s sparkling 1.61 ERA is a bit misleading. 

The 34-year-old right hander has filled in nicely in Baltimore’s injury riddled rotation, but the underlying metric suggests his success may not last much longer. 

Suarez sports a 3.43 expected ERA and a 4.25 expected FIP, suggesting that he’s been incredibly lucky to keep so many teams from scoring in 44 â…” innings swapping between the bullpen and starter role this season. 

He’s been most fortunate avoiding the long ball, allowing just one home run all season and putting up an unsustainably low 0.20 HR/9. 

It’s not like Suarez is forcing batters to pound the ball into the ground – his 38 percent fly ball percentage allowed is actually well above average. 

Suarez’s first appearance at the band box that is Yankee Stadium is the perfect day for this impossible trend to end. 

New York Yankees' Aaron Judge strikes out swinging in the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Boston Red Sox, Sunday, June 16, 2024, in Boston.
New York Yankees’ Aaron Judge strikes out swinging in the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Boston Red Sox, Sunday, June 16, 2024, in Boston. AP

And with one of the hottest players on the planet in pinstripes, we have just the player to target. 

Aaron Judge is on one of the best 40-game runs in MLB history, hitting .387/.503/.937 with 20 home runs over that stretch. 

Judge has never faced Suarez, but he’s hit much better against right-handers than left-handers this season, and has also thrived at Yankee Stadium compared to the road so far in 2024. 

Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting

Suarez also throws a four-seam fastball or cutter more than three-quarters of the time – two pitchers Judge has eaten up throughout his career. 

Given Judge’s incredible hot streak, the odds aren’t going to provide a life-changing payout, but his chances to put one over the wall tonight are as good as they get. 

The play: Aaron Judge to hit a home run (+190, FanDuel)

*Eligible bettors can also go to the promos page on FanDuel to participate in the “Dinger Tuesday” promotion. (Min $25 bet) bettors who wager on a player to hit a home run will get $5 in bonus bets for every home run hit in that game.