Biden holds razor-thin lead over Trump in both head-to-head and five-way race: poll
President Biden is leading former President Donald Trump by a razor-thin margin in the 2024 White House race, according to a new poll.
The Fox News survey, released Wednesday, shows the incumbent leading the ex-commander in chief 50%-48% in a head-to-head rematch of the 2020 election.
Biden, 81, maintains his edge over Trump, 78, in a hypothetical five-way race as well, leading by a 1-point margin, 43% to 42%.
The results mark a 3-point shift in support for Biden from last month’s head-to-head poll, when Trump was ahead by 1 point, according to the Fox News survey.
With third-party candidates included, the president benefited from a 4-point swing from May, when Trump topped him by 3 points.
Biden’s uptick in the polls coincides with positive views of the economy hitting record-high marks under his presidency.
Thirty-two percent of registered voters said the economy is in “excellent” or “good” shape, topping last month’s previous Biden-era high of 30%.
However, the majority of Americans (68%) felt the economy is doing “not so good” or “poor” under Biden.
The president also saw a surge in support from independent voters, who favor him over Trump by 9 points.
In May, the presumptive Republican nominee for president held a 2-point advantage over Biden with independents.
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Trump’s advantage over Biden on two top issues – immigration and the economy – fell sharply from last month.
What to know about the planned debates between President Biden and former President Trump:
- President Biden and former President Donald Trump have tentatively agreed to two presidential debates ahead of the Nov. 5. election.
- Biden released a video telling Trump to “make my day, pal” and debate him. The president noted that Trump has previously asked to debate “anytime, anyplace and anywhere.”
- Trump accepted Biden’s challenge and wrote on Truth Social that he would be open to having even more debates with large, live crowds.
- The first debate will be hosted by CNN at the company’s Atlanta headquarters at 9 p.m. ET Thursday, June 27. There will not be a live audience, and moderators will be announced later.
- The second debate will be hosted by ABC News on Tuesday, Sept. 10.
- The Commission on Presidential Debates — which has organized debates since the 1988 election — will not be involved in either debate.
- Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was not invited to join the debates. Kennedy accused the other candidates of “colluding” to keep him out of the events.
On immigration, voters trust Trump more than Biden by 9 points, but the former president enjoyed a 15-point trust advantage in May.
On the economy, Trump holds a 5-point edge over Biden, which is down from his 13-point lead last month.
“There is not a lot of movement in this poll since May, but it is enough to make this a welcome poll for Biden,” Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts Fox News surveys with Republican pollster Daron Shaw, said in a statement.
“The vote preference improvement is one thing, but perhaps more importantly, we saw notable erosion of Trump’s advantage on the economy and immigration, while Biden built on his advantages on abortion and health care,” he added. “If voters don’t perceive Trump as significantly better on the economy and immigration, the rationale for returning him to office will become much murkier for some voters.”
The poll, conducted June 14-17, found that the guilty verdicts in Trump’s Manhattan hush money trial and first son Hunter Biden’s Delaware gun case didn’t move the needle much.
Only 2% of voters said Trump’s conviction swayed them to support the president, and an equal percentage said Hunter’s conviction moved them to back the former president.
“The underlying demographic tendencies that have defined the race remain in place,” Shaw said.
“Biden has improved slightly with women and seniors, which keeps him afloat despite significant reductions from 2020 in support from younger voters and African Americans,” he added.
Biden and Trump will square off next week in the first of two scheduled presidential debates ahead of the November election.
