It may seem unbelievable but it’s true: Donald Trump actually has a fair shot at winning New York in this year’s presidential election.
That’s right: The state that tried to bankrupt and jail him could help elect him.
Recent polling has consistently shown Trump well within single digits in the Empire State.
And the state as a whole has been shifting rightward, thanks to weak Democratic leadership and failed policies that have thrown our state into a downward spiral.
Start with this: In the last presidential race, Joe Biden won New York by 23 points, yet the latest Emerson poll shows Biden’s lead now down to just six points, almost within the margin of error.
Crucially, independent voters favor Trump by 10 points.
Political pundits and high-paid consultants may dismiss this outright, but New York’s rightward shift in recent years is indisputable.
And it could result in a game-changing flip this November.
Think about it: Crime has surged, subways have become less safe.
Public safety is at risk everywhere thanks to Democrats’ pro-criminal laws, like cashless bail.
Criminal illegal migrants are raping 13-year-old girls in parks, assaulting our police officers and staying in luxury hotels at taxpayers’ expense.
Antisemitism has soared.
And the more Democrats resort to lawfare to target Trump, the more New Yorkers see what could happen to them if they fall out of political favor.
You could see the rightward shift in the 2022 governor’s race, when Kathy Hochul squeaked through by the slimmest margin of any Democrat in decades.
And now her approval rating has fallen to a new low of 34% in the Emerson poll.
(There’s a reason she suddenly paused the widely loathed congestion tax, which she had long championed.)
And look at the Trump-Biden numbers: The current president swept the Hudson Valley in 2020, winning all three congressional districts, NY-17, NY-18 and NY-19, by 10, 8 and 5 points, respectively.
On Long Island, he carried the battleground districts of NY-1, NY-3 and NY-4 by as many as 15 points; upstate, he took the swing seat of NY-22 by nearly 8.
Fast-forward to 2022, when the Zeldin-led gubernatorial campaign won all these seats handily, resulting in four down-ballot congressional flips and three critical holds that created the current Republican majority in the House of Representatives.
Long Island, meanwhile, has turned ruby red.
Republicans in Nassau and Suffolk were elected to lead all countywide positions and have majorities in both county legislatures.
Diving deeper, the GOP flipped several mayoral seats last year in Democrat-dominated upstate cities like Saratoga Springs and Troy.
In The Bronx, Republicans won a New York City Council seat for the first time in 40 years.
Republican victories, cratering approval ratings for Biden, Hochul and Mayor Adams and several issues working badly against Democrats have created the potential for another historic upset in 2024.
At the same time, President Trump has shown ingenuity and grit on the trail, breaking through partisan barriers while campaigning across New York City.
His visits to a Harlem bodega, union construction site and FDNY firehouse, along with his massive rally in the South Bronx, are all resonating with voters, not only in New York but in every big city in America.
Trump’s efforts to speak directly to millions of disenfranchised Democrats and independents ready to abandon blind partisan loyalties will reap huge benefits for his campaign and competitive down-ballot races up for grabs in November.
Furthermore, the right’s infrastructure has become stronger, with an active volunteer base and a greater focus on election security and early and absentee voting.
The Republican Party has also notched major victories against Democratic attempts to gerrymander congressional districts and enshrine their entire left-wing transgender and anti-parental-rights agenda in the state Constitution.
The thousands who turned out for Trump’s Bronx rally said it all: New Yorkers of all races and ethnicities are ready for a change.
They want new leadership in the country to stem inflation, secure the border and prosecute real criminals, not political opponents.
Donald Trump is competitive in Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico and Virginia.
New York is not far behind.
Andrew Stein, a Democrat, served as New York City Council president, 1986-’94. Lee Zeldin (R) represented Suffolk County in the House of Representatives from 2015-’23 and ran for New York governor in 2022.